Detroit Pistons 116 @ 93 Philadelphia 76ers

April 04, 2026 | Xfinity Mobile Arena | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

DET PHI Total
Predicted 116 110 226
Actual 116 93 209
Diff 0 +17 +17
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Paul Reed Pred: 10/6/2 | Actual: 10/7/0
Caris LeVert Pred: 10/2/3 | Actual: 7/2/3
Chaz Lanier Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Trendon Watford Pred: 7/3/2 | Actual: 4/1/2
Ronald Holland II Pred: 9/4/1 | Actual: 11/6/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Quentin Grimes Pred: 12pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 23:24 11 2 2 0 0 0 2 4-7 57.1 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 27.0
Ausar Thompson SF 24:49 14 5 2 3 1 4 2 7-11 63.6 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 27.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 31:30 16 4 14 1 1 1 0 4-11 36.4 2-5 40.0 6-7 85.7 25.0
Tobias Harris PF 26:33 19 4 2 4 0 1 1 7-13 53.8 1-3 33.3 4-4 100.0 26.0
Jalen Duren C 30:20 16 7 3 0 0 1 1 5-8 62.5 0-0 0.0 6-7 85.7 15.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 6:21 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Ronald Holland II 19:50 11 6 0 1 1 0 1 4-10 40.0 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 -1.0
Kevin Huerter 25:13 5 5 6 0 0 2 3 2-9 22.2 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier 2:06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Caris LeVert 21:05 7 2 3 1 0 1 1 3-6 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 17:40 10 7 0 2 1 1 4 4-5 80.0 0-1 0.0 2-4 50.0 8.0
Marcus Sasser 11:08 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Tolu Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
VJ Edgecombe SG 35:17 19 6 1 2 1 3 1 7-18 38.9 2-8 25.0 3-4 75.0 -9.0
Kelly Oubre Jr. SF 24:16 3 4 1 1 0 1 3 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -28.0
Tyrese Maxey PG 33:10 23 1 1 1 0 2 2 8-17 47.1 2-5 40.0 5-7 71.4 -27.0
Paul George PF 28:20 20 5 4 2 0 3 3 7-14 50.0 3-5 60.0 3-4 75.0 -9.0
Andre Drummond C 18:15 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 2-5 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Dominick Barlow 29:00 8 2 2 0 1 2 4 3-6 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -3.0
MarJon Beauchamp 3:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Adem Bona 23:03 10 4 2 0 0 1 0 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Justin Edwards 9:46 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Joel Embiid DNP - Inactive
Quentin Grimes 17:22 0 3 1 0 0 1 2 0-4 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Jabari Walker 4:56 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Trendon Watford 4:56 4 1 2 0 0 1 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: DET @ PHI
Apr 04, 2026 at 10:41 AM
**Prediction:** DET 116 - PHI 110 (DET by 6, total 226) **Confidence:** 86% **DET** 53-20 (#1) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 113.9 | Def: 106.3 | Rest: 1d rest **PHI** 40-33 (#7) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 112.4 | Def: 112.8 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 102.5 **Injuries:** DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Tobias Harris (Day-To-Day), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Day-To-Day), Paul George (Out) (impact: -4.0 pts) **Key Players:** DET: Jalen Duren 24.2p/14.5r/2.9a | Duncan Robinson 16.3p/3.4r/2.7a | Daniss Jenkins 15.6p/3.3r/6.0a PHI: Tyrese Maxey 24.7p/4.0r/6.2a | Joel Embiid 18.8p/5.7r/3.0a | VJ Edgecombe 14.6p/4.4r/3.9a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET -148 (strong, EV $0.434/dollar) MONEYLINE DET -162 (strong, EV $0.384/dollar) SPREAD DET -3.0 (slight, EV $0.126/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred