San Antonio Spurs 134 @ 136 Denver Nuggets

April 04, 2026 | Ball Arena | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

SAS DEN Total
Predicted 124 122 246
Actual 134 136 270
Diff -10 -14 -24
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Julian Strawther Pred: 6/2/1 | Actual: 6/1/2
Devin Vassell Pred: 17/4/3 | Actual: 18/5/2
Bruce Brown Pred: 7/3/1 | Actual: 5/2/1
Jonas Valančiūnas Pred: 5/5/1 | Actual: 7/3/0
Dylan Harper Pred: 15/3/5 | Actual: 12/3/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Nikola Jokić Pred: 23pts | Actual: 40pts (off by 16)
Jamal Murray Pred: 30pts | Actual: 15pts (off by 14)
Christian Braun Pred: 11pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 10)

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Stephon Castle SG 40:19 20 5 9 0 0 4 6 9-17 52.9 0-4 0.0 2-2 100.0 -10.0
Devin Vassell SF 39:13 18 5 2 0 1 0 0 6-14 42.9 3-8 37.5 3-3 100.0 -10.0
De'Aaron Fox PG 40:25 14 4 4 1 0 2 4 7-19 36.8 0-6 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Julian Champagnie PF 33:00 18 5 2 0 0 0 1 6-12 50.0 6-9 66.7 0-0 0.0 2.0
Victor Wembanyama C 39:36 34 18 7 1 5 1 3 8-17 47.1 2-6 33.3 16-17 94.1 4.0
Harrison Barnes 16:31 8 1 1 1 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 2.0
Bismack Biyombo DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant 4:56 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Dylan Harper 20:12 12 3 3 0 0 2 3 5-7 71.4 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 -1.0
Harrison Ingram DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson 17:24 10 2 0 0 0 0 2 3-10 30.0 0-6 0.0 4-4 100.0 -3.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet 13:23 0 5 1 1 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Jordan McLaughlin DNP - Coach's Decision
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III DNP - Coach's Decision

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 39:09 21 8 4 0 1 0 2 7-16 43.8 5-11 45.5 2-2 100.0 10.0
Cameron Johnson SF 39:11 17 7 1 2 2 1 0 6-11 54.5 4-8 50.0 1-1 100.0 7.0
Jamal Murray PG 45:45 15 4 10 1 0 2 5 6-13 46.2 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 5.0
Aaron Gordon PF 41:05 15 6 3 0 0 2 4 7-12 58.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Nikola Jokić C 43:59 40 8 13 0 3 0 4 13-25 52.0 1-5 20.0 13-15 86.7 12.0
Bruce Brown 11:01 5 2 1 1 0 1 3 2-7 28.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26:04 10 5 0 1 0 0 1 3-6 50.0 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
DaRon Holmes II DNP - Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones DNP - Inactive
Tyus Jones 2:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Inactive
Jalen Pickett DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther 11:08 6 1 2 0 0 0 1 2-5 40.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jonas Valančiūnas 5:33 7 3 0 0 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -3.0
Peyton Watson DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: SAS @ DEN
Apr 04, 2026 at 10:41 AM
**Prediction:** SAS 124 - DEN 122 (SAS by 1, total 246) **Confidence:** 76% **SAS** 55-18 (#2) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.5 | Rest: 1d rest **DEN** 46-28 (#4) | Net: 4.3 | Off: 118.8 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.7 **Injuries:** SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out), Victor Wembanyama (Out) (impact: -6.2 pts) DEN: Tim Hardaway Jr. (Day-To-Day), Spencer Jones (Day-To-Day), Zeke Nnaji (Day-To-Day), Peyton Watson (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.3 pts) **Key Players:** SAS: Stephon Castle 22.6p/7.1r/10.3a | De'Aaron Fox 20.0p/3.3r/7.2a | Devin Vassell 17.4p/4.2r/3.2a DEN: Jamal Murray 29.8p/3.8r/7.1a | Nikola Jokić 23.1p/16.4r/10.3a | Cameron Johnson 14.3p/4.4r/2.0a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE SAS -130 (strong, EV $0.336/dollar) MONEYLINE SAS -130 (strong, EV $0.336/dollar) TOTAL OVER 242.5 (slight, EV $0.132/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred