San Antonio Spurs 118 @ 99 Los Angeles Clippers

April 02, 2026 | Intuit Dome | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

SAS LAC Total
Predicted 114 110 224
Actual 118 99 217
Diff -4 +11 +7
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Harrison Ingram Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 2/0/0
Bismack Biyombo Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Jordan McLaughlin Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 2/0/1
Kobe Sanders Pred: 7/2/2 | Actual: 6/1/1
Keldon Johnson Pred: 13/4/2 | Actual: 13/6/1

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Stephon Castle SG 33:25 20 4 5 0 0 5 4 8-15 53.3 3-5 60.0 1-1 100.0 5.0
Devin Vassell SF 28:52 14 10 2 0 0 0 1 5-12 41.7 3-8 37.5 1-1 100.0 4.0
De'Aaron Fox PG 29:10 22 8 5 3 0 3 4 9-13 69.2 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 24.0
Julian Champagnie PF 27:32 13 8 4 2 0 1 1 5-13 38.5 1-6 16.7 2-3 66.7 17.0
Luke Kornet C 25:04 8 6 5 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 14.0
Harrison Barnes 20:43 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Bismack Biyombo 3:09 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Carter Bryant 10:06 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Dylan Harper 25:01 19 2 5 1 0 2 4 8-12 66.7 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 11.0
Harrison Ingram 3:09 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Keldon Johnson 26:48 13 6 1 0 0 1 3 6-11 54.5 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 18.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Jordan McLaughlin 3:50 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk 3:09 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Lindy Waters III DNP - Coach's Decision
Victor Wembanyama DNP - Inactive

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 23:45 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 2-6 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 31:42 24 6 5 2 0 0 0 10-16 62.5 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Darius Garland PG 29:00 11 2 3 1 1 1 3 5-17 29.4 1-8 12.5 0-2 0.0 -19.0
John Collins PF 24:46 15 6 0 0 0 1 1 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 6.0
Brook Lopez C 24:01 6 6 3 0 1 0 4 3-12 25.0 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Nicolas Batum 5:30 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie 6:25 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Kris Dunn 20:55 3 1 4 2 1 1 3 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -21.0
Isaiah Jackson DNP - Inactive
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 26:51 18 7 2 2 0 3 3 5-10 50.0 0-1 0.0 8-8 100.0 -19.0
Jordan Miller 25:42 12 0 0 1 0 1 1 6-11 54.5 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -20.0
Kobe Sanders 13:14 6 1 1 0 0 1 2 2-6 33.3 0-3 0.0 2-4 50.0 3.0
TyTy Washington Jr. 4:59 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: SAS @ LAC
Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM
**Grade: A** — Winner right, total was close. **Result:** SAS 118 - LAC 99 (Winner: SAS ✓) **Prediction:** SAS 114 - LAC 110 Score error: 4/11 | Total: pred 224, actual 217 (-7) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -175 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -178 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAS -4.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAS -3.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 231.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: SAS @ LAC
Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM
**Prediction:** SAS 119 - LAC 109 (SAS by 10, total 228) **Confidence:** 94% **SAS** 55-18 (#2) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.5 | Rest: B2B **LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.5 **Injuries:** SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Isaiah Jackson (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out) (impact: -1.7 pts) **Key Players:** SAS: Victor Wembanyama 21.9p/12.1r/2.3a | Stephon Castle 15.1p/5.4r/7.9a | De'Aaron Fox 14.5p/2.4r/5.8a LAC: Kawhi Leonard 24.6p/6.9r/2.8a | Darius Garland 18.1p/2.2r/7.4a | Bennedict Mathurin 15.3p/4.5r/2.4a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE SAS -175 (strong, EV $0.479/dollar) MONEYLINE SAS -178 (strong, EV $0.470/dollar) SPREAD SAS -4.5 (moderate, EV $0.292/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred