Los Angeles Lakers 96 @ 139 Oklahoma City Thunder

April 02, 2026 | Paycom Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

LAL OKC Total
Predicted 107 121 228
Actual 96 139 235
Diff +11 -18 -7
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jaylin Williams Pred: 8/6/2 | Actual: 7/6/2
Nikola Topić Pred: 3/2/2 | Actual: 2/2/2
Jared McCain Pred: 7/2/1 | Actual: 8/2/2
Branden Carlson Pred: 2/3/0 | Actual: 4/4/1
Brooks Barnhizer Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 0/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Luka Dončić Pred: 27pts | Actual: 12pts (off by 14)
Jalen Williams Pred: 21pts | Actual: 10pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Austin Reaves SG 26:38 15 4 1 0 0 4 1 5-9 55.6 2-3 66.7 3-3 100.0 -23.0
Jake LaRavia SF 32:30 6 8 2 0 2 1 3 3-10 30.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Luka Dončić PG 25:42 12 4 7 1 0 6 0 3-10 30.0 1-7 14.3 5-6 83.3 -25.0
LeBron James PF 25:59 13 6 2 1 1 2 1 3-7 42.9 1-4 25.0 6-8 75.0 -37.0
Deandre Ayton C 19:41 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -23.0
Kobe Bufkin DNP - Inactive
Rui Hachimura 18:17 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 2-9 22.2 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -39.0
Jaxson Hayes 20:44 12 1 1 0 0 1 3 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 6-8 75.0 -17.0
Bronny James 17:39 10 0 1 0 1 3 0 4-8 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Luke Kennard 32:47 7 4 3 0 0 1 1 3-8 37.5 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -28.0
Maxi Kleber 8:03 0 4 0 1 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Dalton Knecht DNP - Inactive
Chris Mañon DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Coach's Decision
Nick Smith Jr. DNP - Inactive
Adou Thiero DNP - Inactive
Drew Timme DNP - Inactive
Jarred Vanderbilt 12:00 9 5 3 3 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 2.0

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Luguentz Dort SG 21:20 14 0 1 2 0 1 1 5-8 62.5 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 15.0
Jalen Williams SF 23:04 10 9 8 2 0 2 1 4-10 40.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 31.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 29:47 28 7 7 0 0 1 2 12-25 48.0 1-4 25.0 3-3 100.0 35.0
Chet Holmgren PF 17:41 7 4 0 2 1 1 3 3-7 42.9 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 20:14 7 6 2 2 2 0 0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 33.0
Brooks Barnhizer 5:26 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Branden Carlson 12:00 4 4 1 0 2 2 2 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-1 0.0 -2.0
Alex Caruso DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Joe 12:55 20 0 0 1 0 0 0 7-9 77.8 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Jared McCain 11:30 8 2 2 1 0 1 1 4-6 66.7 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ajay Mitchell 16:07 10 3 1 0 0 0 3 4-7 57.1 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 25.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić 12:00 2 2 2 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Cason Wallace 21:11 8 5 2 1 0 0 1 3-7 42.9 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 28.0
Aaron Wiggins 12:33 7 0 1 0 0 1 0 3-6 50.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jaylin Williams 13:59 7 6 2 0 0 0 2 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 4-5 80.0 15.0
Kenrich Williams 10:12 7 2 2 0 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAL @ OKC
Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM
**Grade: A** — Winner right, total was close. **Result:** LAL 96 - OKC 139 (Winner: OKC ✓) **Prediction:** LAL 107 - OKC 121 Score error: 11/18 | Total: pred 228, actual 235 (+7) **Standout Players:** Luka Dončić (LAL): 12p actual vs 26.7p pred (+14.7) Jalen Williams (OKC): 10p actual vs 20.6p pred (+10.6) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ SPREAD OKC -9.0 — WON ✓ SPREAD OKC -9.5 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE OKC -345 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE OKC -370 — WON
General Slate Analysis: LAL @ OKC
Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM
**Prediction:** LAL 108 - OKC 122 (OKC by 14, total 230) **Confidence:** 95% **LAL** 47-26 (#3) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 114.3 | Rest: 1d rest **OKC** 57-16 (#1) | Net: 10.7 | Off: 115.9 | Def: 105.2 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.0 **Injuries:** LAL: LeBron James (Day-To-Day), Marcus Smart (Out) (impact: -2.1 pts) OKC: Isaiah Hartenstein (Day-To-Day), Thomas Sorber (Out), Jalen Williams (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.0 pts) **Key Players:** LAL: Luka Dončić 26.8p/6.2r/7.2a | Austin Reaves 18.4p/3.7r/5.8a | LeBron James 13.9p/5.6r/6.7a OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32.1p/3.8r/6.9a | Jalen Williams 17.2p/2.9r/3.7a | Ajay Mitchell 13.6p/2.8r/3.6a **Value Bets:** SPREAD OKC -9.0 (moderate, EV $0.241/dollar) SPREAD OKC -9.5 (moderate, EV $0.240/dollar) MONEYLINE OKC -345 (strong, EV $0.229/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred