Minnesota Timberwolves 108 @ 113 Detroit Pistons

April 02, 2026 | Little Caesars Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

MIN DET Total
Predicted 108 113 220
Actual 108 113 221
Diff 0 0 -1
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Kevin Huerter Pred: 12/3/3 | Actual: 12/4/2
Ayo Dosunmu Pred: 16/5/4 | Actual: 19/5/4
Duncan Robinson Pred: 13/3/2 | Actual: 15/4/3
Jalen Duren Pred: 20/14/3 | Actual: 22/14/4
Marcus Sasser Pred: 4/1/3 | Actual: 2/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Tobias Harris Pred: 17pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 15)
Donte DiVincenzo Pred: 17pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 11)
Julius Randle Pred: 16pts | Actual: 27pts (off by 10)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donte DiVincenzo SG 29:52 5 1 1 0 1 1 3 2-8 25.0 1-7 14.3 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Julius Randle SF 34:40 27 6 6 1 0 3 2 9-15 60.0 2-5 40.0 7-10 70.0 2.0
Ayo Dosunmu PF 32:32 19 5 4 2 1 4 1 7-15 46.7 2-7 28.6 3-3 100.0 -11.0
Rudy Gobert C 27:10 6 7 1 0 1 1 4 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -10.0
Kyle Anderson 25:31 2 7 2 2 3 2 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Joan Beringer DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Clark DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 19:10 6 3 2 0 0 1 2 3-12 25.0 0-6 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaden McDaniels DNP - Inactive
Julian Phillips DNP - Coach's Decision
Naz Reid 30:30 19 6 3 0 2 1 2 6-16 37.5 4-9 44.4 3-4 75.0 5.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 18:26 10 3 1 1 0 0 2 4-7 57.1 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 28:42 15 4 3 1 0 2 5 5-11 45.5 3-7 42.9 2-2 100.0 10.0
Ausar Thompson SF 30:59 7 9 9 2 3 1 2 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 15.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 36:50 26 5 8 0 0 1 0 9-19 47.4 2-2 100.0 6-7 85.7 13.0
Tobias Harris PF 6:07 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Jalen Duren C 35:32 22 14 4 1 2 5 3 8-15 53.3 0-0 0.0 6-10 60.0 6.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 26:33 8 6 0 1 0 1 2 2-7 28.6 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Ronald Holland II 15:38 8 0 0 1 0 0 2 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Kevin Huerter 21:37 12 4 2 0 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier DNP - Inactive
Caris LeVert 13:36 7 2 0 0 1 1 1 3-7 42.9 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 -11.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Paul Reed 16:00 4 4 1 1 1 1 2 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Marcus Sasser 8:24 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Tolu Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MIN @ DET
Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM
**Grade: S** — Nailed it. **Result:** MIN 108 - DET 113 (Winner: DET ✓) **Prediction:** MIN 108 - DET 113 Score error: 0/0 | Total: pred 220, actual 221 (+1) **Standout Players:** Tobias Harris (DET): 2p actual vs 17.3p pred (+15.3) Julius Randle (MIN): 27p actual vs 16.5p pred (-10.5) Donte DiVincenzo (MIN): 5p actual vs 16.6p pred (+11.6) Daniss Jenkins (DET): 26p actual vs 15.8p pred (-10.2) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE DET -162 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE DET -164 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 225.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET -3.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 224.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET -3.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: MIN @ DET
Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM
**Prediction:** MIN 106 - DET 114 (DET by 8, total 219) **Confidence:** 93% **MIN** 45-28 (#5) | Net: 3.7 | Off: 114.5 | Def: 110.8 | Rest: 2d rest **DET** 53-20 (#1) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 113.9 | Def: 106.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.7 **Injuries:** MIN: Jaden McDaniels (Out), Rocco Zikarsky (Day-To-Day) (impact: -3.0 pts) DET: Cade Cunningham (Day-To-Day), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -3.9 pts) **Key Players:** MIN: Anthony Edwards 22.7p/3.6r/3.5a | Donte DiVincenzo 16.5p/3.3r/2.9a | Julius Randle 16.2p/7.9r/4.0a DET: Jalen Duren 18.0p/13.0r/3.0a | Tobias Harris 15.7p/5.3r/4.0a | Cade Cunningham 15.1p/3.5r/7.4a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET -162 (strong, EV $0.499/dollar) MONEYLINE DET -164 (strong, EV $0.492/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 225.5 (moderate, EV $0.244/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred