Phoenix Suns 107 @ 127 Charlotte Hornets

April 02, 2026 | Spectrum Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

PHX CHA Total
Predicted 110 114 224
Actual 107 127 234
Diff +3 -13 -10
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Pat Connaughton Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Koby Brea Pred: 2/0/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Tre Mann Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 2/0/0
Ryan Kalkbrenner Pred: 6/5/0 | Actual: 8/7/1

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 35:41 22 5 6 1 0 2 4 9-22 40.9 3-8 37.5 1-1 100.0 -13.0
Jalen Green SF 34:15 25 4 7 2 1 3 1 10-19 52.6 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Collin Gillespie PG 23:44 6 3 3 0 0 1 3 2-7 28.6 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Dillon Brooks PF 28:41 13 1 3 0 0 1 2 5-12 41.7 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Oso Ighodaro C 25:04 6 9 1 0 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Grayson Allen 24:32 13 2 1 0 0 0 4 4-10 40.0 2-6 33.3 3-5 60.0 -16.0
Jamaree Bouyea 2:52 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Koby Brea 2:52 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn 2:52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Rasheer Fleming 7:37 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Jordan Goodwin 12:13 3 1 0 0 1 1 3 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 2:52 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -1.0
Royce O'Neale 16:39 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Mark Williams 20:04 12 4 1 1 3 1 1 6-7 85.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 30:44 17 4 4 0 0 1 4 7-14 50.0 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 16.0
Kon Knueppel SF 32:33 20 3 2 0 0 1 1 7-14 50.0 4-9 44.4 2-2 100.0 5.0
LaMelo Ball PG 25:10 15 2 11 1 0 0 3 6-13 46.2 2-6 33.3 1-1 100.0 13.0
Miles Bridges PF 26:59 25 4 2 1 0 2 0 10-16 62.5 4-8 50.0 1-2 50.0 12.0
Moussa Diabaté C 24:39 4 10 1 1 0 1 3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Pat Connaughton 2:14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 6:52 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 23:29 7 5 1 3 0 0 3 3-7 42.9 0-3 0.0 1-1 100.0 16.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 23:20 8 7 1 1 4 0 1 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Tre Mann 2:37 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Liam McNeeley DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman DNP - Coach's Decision
Coby White 20:20 19 4 3 0 0 3 3 6-13 46.2 3-7 42.9 4-5 80.0 5.0
Grant Williams 21:01 10 7 2 0 0 1 0 3-10 30.0 2-8 25.0 2-2 100.0 8.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHX @ CHA
Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** PHX 107 - CHA 127 (Winner: CHA ✓) **Prediction:** PHX 110 - CHA 114 Score error: 3/13 | Total: pred 224, actual 234 (+10) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -205 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -210 — WON
General Slate Analysis: PHX @ CHA
Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM
**Prediction:** PHX 110 - CHA 114 (CHA by 4, total 224) **Confidence:** 85% **PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: 1d rest **CHA** 39-34 (#9) | Net: 4.6 | Off: 114.6 | Def: 110.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.5 **Injuries:** PHX: Amir Coffey (Out), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -3.2 pts) **Key Players:** PHX: Devin Booker 29.6p/3.1r/8.2a | Jalen Green 21.7p/4.0r/3.3a | Dillon Brooks 16.2p/2.9r/1.4a CHA: LaMelo Ball 19.1p/5.1r/6.7a | Brandon Miller 16.9p/6.3r/3.1a | Kon Knueppel 15.2p/4.5r/3.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE CHA -205 (strong, EV $0.259/dollar) MONEYLINE CHA -210 (strong, EV $0.249/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred