SAS @ GSW - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	SAS	GSW	Total
Predicted	120	106	226
Actual	127	113	240
Diff	-7	-7	-14

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Brandin Podziemski Pred: 14/5/4 | Actual: 14/6/5

Dylan Harper Pred: 14/4/5 | Actual: 13/2/5

Keldon Johnson Pred: 14/4/2 | Actual: 11/3/1

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Victor Wembanyama Pred: 25pts | Actual: 41pts (off by 16)

LJ Cryer Pred: 6pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 11)

San Antonio Spurs

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Stephon Castle	SG	32:39	15	7	11	1	0	4	2	4-9	44.4	2-4	50.0	5-7	71.4	6.0
Devin Vassell	SF	27:49	8	2	4	0	1	2	2	2-8	25.0	1-5	20.0	3-4	75.0	25.0
De'Aaron Fox	PG	24:43	11	4	4	2	0	1	2	4-7	57.1	1-2	50.0	2-2	100.0	30.0
Julian Champagnie	PF	25:37	15	3	2	0	0	1	3	5-15	33.3	4-13	30.8	1-1	100.0	0.0
Victor Wembanyama	C	28:55	41	18	3	0	3	0	0	16-22	72.7	2-6	33.3	7-8	87.5	16.0
Harrison Barnes		27:11	13	6	3	1	0	0	1	4-7	57.1	3-6	50.0	2-3	66.7	-7.0
Bismack Biyombo	DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant		17:08	0	3	1	1	2	1	4	0-3	0.0	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Dylan Harper		23:35	13	2	5	2	0	3	4	6-11	54.5	0-2	0.0	1-1	100.0	-4.0
Harrison Ingram	DNP - Coach's Decision
Keldon Johnson		25:42	11	3	1	0	0	1	2	3-11	27.3	2-6	33.3	3-4	75.0	7.0
David Jones Garcia	DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet	DNP - Inactive
Jordan McLaughlin	DNP - Coach's Decision
Emanuel Miller	DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk	DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III	DNP - Coach's Decision

Golden State Warriors

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
LJ Cryer	SG	23:29	17	1	3	0	0	2	3	6-12	50.0	2-7	28.6	3-3	100.0	-16.0
Will Richard	SF	25:33	2	4	3	0	0	0	2	1-3	33.3	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-18.0
Brandin Podziemski	PG	17:14	14	6	5	0	0	1	1	4-8	50.0	2-5	40.0	4-4	100.0	-9.0
Draymond Green	C	20:41	14	2	1	1	1	0	5	4-7	57.1	4-6	66.7	2-2	100.0	-11.0
Jimmy Butler III	DNP - Inactive
Stephen Curry	DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry		10:03	12	2	0	0	0	0	0	5-8	62.5	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	-4.0
Al Horford	DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons		29:24	5	4	5	2	0	2	4	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	1-3	33.3	-1.0
De'Anthony Melton	DNP - Coach's Decision
Moses Moody	DNP - Coach's Decision
Gary Payton II	DNP - Coach's Decision
Kristaps Porziņģis	DNP - Inactive
Quinten Post	DNP - Inactive
Gui Santos	DNP - Coach's Decision
Pat Spencer		38:00	14	8	7	1	1	5	1	6-15	40.0	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	-3.0

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General Post-Game Review: SAS @ GSW

Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** SAS 127 - GSW 113 (Winner: SAS ✓)
**Prediction:** SAS 120 - GSW 106
Score error: 7/7 | Total: pred 226, actual 240 (+14)

**Standout Players:**
  Victor Wembanyama (SAS): 41p actual vs 24.9p pred (-16.1)
  LJ Cryer (GSW): 17p actual vs 5.6p pred (-11.4)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ SPREAD SAS -13.5 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD SAS -13.5 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -850 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -850 — WON

General Slate Analysis: SAS @ GSW

Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM

**Prediction:** SAS 123 - GSW 103 (SAS by 20, total 226)
**Confidence:** 96%

**SAS** 55-18 (#2) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.5 | Rest: 1d rest
**GSW** 35-38 (#10) | Net: 0.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 2d rest
Projected pace: 102.3

**Injuries:**
  SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts)
  GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Al Horford (Day-To-Day), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Day-To-Day), Will Richard (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  SAS: Victor Wembanyama 25.3p/13.2r/4.0a | De'Aaron Fox 18.7p/3.1r/6.6a | Stephon Castle 16.5p/5.8r/8.7a
  GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 16.4p/5.3r/2.1a | Brandin Podziemski 15.6p/5.7r/4.3a | De'Anthony Melton 14.5p/3.8r/3.1a

**Value Bets:**
  SPREAD SAS -13.5 (moderate, EV $0.327/dollar)
  SPREAD SAS -13.5 (moderate, EV $0.327/dollar)
  MONEYLINE SAS -850 (slight, EV $0.079/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

San Antonio Spurs 127 @ 113 Golden State Warriors