Denver Nuggets 130 @ 117 Utah Jazz

April 01, 2026 | Delta Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

DEN UTA Total
Predicted 133 122 255
Actual 130 117 247
Diff +3 +5 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Bruce Brown Pred: 11/4/2 | Actual: 11/3/1
Oscar Tshiebwe Pred: 8/7/2 | Actual: 8/7/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Tim Hardaway Jr. Pred: 17pts | Actual: 3pts (off by 14)
Nikola Jokić Pred: 28pts | Actual: 15pts (off by 12)
Kyle Filipowski Pred: 15pts | Actual: 25pts (off by 10)

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 30:42 18 6 4 0 0 0 2 7-11 63.6 1-3 33.3 3-3 100.0 15.0
Cameron Johnson SF 35:28 19 9 6 2 0 1 3 7-13 53.8 3-7 42.9 2-2 100.0 16.0
Jamal Murray PG 37:15 37 5 5 1 2 1 0 12-26 46.2 10-16 62.5 3-3 100.0 20.0
Aaron Gordon PF 27:59 6 2 2 2 0 2 1 1-7 14.3 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 3.0
Nikola Jokić C 33:06 15 17 12 0 0 5 1 5-10 50.0 0-1 0.0 5-7 71.4 10.0
Bruce Brown 27:13 11 3 1 4 1 0 2 4-8 50.0 0-2 0.0 3-4 75.0 8.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10:25 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
DaRon Holmes II 1:40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Curtis Jones DNP - Inactive
Spencer Jones DNP - Inactive
Tyus Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Inactive
Jalen Pickett 1:40 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Julian Strawther 8:35 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Jonas Valančiūnas 13:14 13 6 0 0 1 1 2 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 7-8 87.5 8.0
Peyton Watson 9:23 6 3 0 0 0 1 1 3-5 60.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cody Williams SG 37:37 9 2 9 1 0 3 3 3-10 30.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -14.0
Ace Bailey SF 33:27 12 1 2 0 0 2 1 5-17 29.4 1-9 11.1 1-2 50.0 -15.0
Brice Sensabaugh PG 32:42 28 6 4 1 1 4 3 11-18 61.1 6-9 66.7 0-1 0.0 4.0
Oscar Tshiebwe PF 20:32 8 7 0 1 0 1 2 4-8 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Kyle Filipowski C 30:38 25 12 3 0 1 1 4 9-15 60.0 3-8 37.5 4-5 80.0 8.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Elijah Harkless DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 29:11 12 10 6 2 1 1 2 4-7 57.1 1-3 33.3 3-5 60.0 -10.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DEN @ UTA
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** DEN 130 - UTA 117 (Winner: DEN ✓) **Prediction:** DEN 133 - UTA 122 Score error: 3/5 | Total: pred 255, actual 247 (-8) **Standout Players:** Tim Hardaway Jr. (DEN): 3p actual vs 17.1p pred (+14.1) Nikola Jokić (DEN): 15p actual vs 27.7p pred (+12.7) Kyle Filipowski (UTA): 25p actual vs 14.8p pred (-10.2) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD DEN -17.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DEN -17.0 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: DEN @ UTA
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** DEN 135 - UTA 112 (DEN by 23, total 247) **Confidence:** 97% **DEN** 46-28 (#4) | Net: 4.3 | Off: 118.8 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 2d rest **UTA** 21-52 (#14) | Net: -7.4 | Off: 111.3 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.7 **Injuries:** DEN: Aaron Gordon (Day-To-Day), Spencer Jones (Out), Zeke Nnaji (Out) (impact: -1.6 pts) UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Elijah Harkless (Day-To-Day), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Day-To-Day), Jusuf Nurkić (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** DEN: Jamal Murray 35.1p/4.4r/9.5a | Nikola Jokić 29.7p/17.1r/11.9a | Tim Hardaway Jr. 17.5p/2.6r/1.5a UTA: Lauri Markkanen 24.1p/6.4r/1.5a | Brice Sensabaugh 22.2p/4.0r/3.0a | Ace Bailey 19.2p/5.6r/2.3a **Value Bets:** SPREAD DEN -17.5 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) SPREAD DEN -17.0 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred