Sacramento Kings 123 @ 115 Toronto Raptors

April 01, 2026 | Scotiabank Arena | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

SAC TOR Total
Predicted 106 127 233
Actual 123 115 238
Diff -17 +12 -5
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili Pred: 17/7/2 | Actual: 17/6/3
Alijah Martin Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Daeqwon Plowden Pred: 13/3/1 | Actual: 11/2/2
A.J. Lawson Pred: 4/1/0 | Actual: 2/1/1
Doug McDermott Pred: 5/1/1 | Actual: 3/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Precious Achiuwa Pred: 11pts | Actual: 28pts (off by 17)
DeMar DeRozan Pred: 15pts | Actual: 28pts (off by 12)
Collin Murray-Boyles Pred: 9pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 10)

Sacramento Kings

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nique Clifford SG 32:16 9 2 3 1 0 3 4 4-9 44.4 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 7.0
DeMar DeRozan SF 34:52 28 1 4 0 0 1 2 7-18 38.9 2-4 50.0 12-12 100.0 2.0
Devin Carter PG 22:50 13 5 3 1 0 0 1 4-12 33.3 1-4 25.0 4-4 100.0 13.0
Precious Achiuwa PF 37:58 28 19 1 0 1 2 4 12-19 63.2 1-2 50.0 3-4 75.0 22.0
Maxime Raynaud C 23:09 6 8 0 0 0 1 3 2-4 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. DNP - Inactive
Dylan Cardwell 14:22 2 6 3 0 1 2 4 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Drew Eubanks DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott 9:07 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Malik Monk 29:10 18 3 5 1 1 3 1 6-11 54.5 3-7 42.9 3-4 75.0 -5.0
Keegan Murray DNP - Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden 21:49 11 2 2 1 0 1 2 4-8 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 7.0
Domantas Sabonis DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook DNP - Inactive

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ja'Kobe Walter SG 32:18 8 4 3 3 0 1 3 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -8.0
RJ Barrett SF 36:19 20 5 6 0 1 5 4 8-19 42.1 1-5 20.0 3-5 60.0 2.0
Jamal Shead PG 37:05 16 1 7 2 1 2 2 5-9 55.6 3-3 100.0 3-3 100.0 17.0
Scottie Barnes PF 35:19 14 5 10 2 1 3 2 5-14 35.7 0-3 0.0 4-8 50.0 -15.0
Jakob Poeltl C 28:12 18 5 1 1 0 0 2 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 6-8 75.0 -9.0
Jamison Battle DNP - Inactive
Gradey Dick DNP - Coach's Decision
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Brandon Ingram DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis DNP - Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson 15:59 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 33:09 17 6 3 1 2 0 1 7-10 70.0 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Alijah Martin 3:38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Jonathan Mogbo DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Murray-Boyles 18:01 20 4 2 0 0 0 5 7-9 77.8 0-1 0.0 6-8 75.0 5.0
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Garrett Temple DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: SAC @ TOR
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** SAC 123 - TOR 115 (Winner: SAC ✗) **Prediction:** SAC 106 - TOR 127 Score error: 17/12 | Total: pred 233, actual 238 (+5) **Standout Players:** DeMar DeRozan (SAC): 28p actual vs 15.4p pred (-12.6) Precious Achiuwa (SAC): 28p actual vs 10.6p pred (-17.4) Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR): 20p actual vs 9.3p pred (-10.7) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD TOR -13.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD TOR -13.5 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE TOR -850 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE TOR -850 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: SAC @ TOR
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** SAC 103 - TOR 124 (TOR by 21, total 226) **Confidence:** 97% **SAC** 19-55 (#15) | Net: -10.1 | Off: 108.6 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 2d rest **TOR** 40-32 (#6) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 112.1 | Def: 110.6 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 101.4 **Injuries:** SAC: Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Out), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts) TOR: Jamison Battle (Out), Chucky Hepburn (Out), Brandon Ingram (Day-To-Day), Collin Murray-Boyles (Day-To-Day), Immanuel Quickley (Out) (impact: -4.1 pts) **Key Players:** SAC: DeMar DeRozan 19.1p/2.9r/5.6a | Malik Monk 16.7p/2.5r/6.2a | Daeqwon Plowden 15.8p/3.2r/1.4a TOR: RJ Barrett 22.4p/4.9r/3.8a | Scottie Barnes 21.9p/6.3r/10.1a | Brandon Ingram 19.3p/4.1r/2.7a **Value Bets:** SPREAD TOR -13.5 (strong, EV $0.415/dollar) SPREAD TOR -13.5 (strong, EV $0.384/dollar) MONEYLINE TOR -850 (slight, EV $0.080/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred