ATL @ ORL - NBA Local

Grade: A Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

	ATL	ORL	Total
Predicted	116	112	229
Actual	130	101	231
Diff	-14	+11	-2

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Jase Richardson Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 4/2/1

Goga Bitadze Pred: 5/4/1 | Actual: 4/5/1

Asa Newell Pred: 3/2/0 | Actual: 2/1/1

Jett Howard Pred: 6/1/1 | Actual: 4/1/1

Gabe Vincent Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 5/2/1

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Jamal Cain Pred: 5pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 11)

Paolo Banchero Pred: 22pts | Actual: 11pts (off by 10)

Atlanta Hawks

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	SG	33:17	32	4	1	3	1	3	3	11-16	68.8	5-9	55.6	5-6	83.3	28.0
Dyson Daniels	SF	31:04	15	13	4	1	0	3	2	5-11	45.5	1-2	50.0	4-4	100.0	19.0
CJ McCollum	PG	33:35	9	1	3	3	1	2	2	4-13	30.8	1-4	25.0	0-1	0.0	21.0
Jalen Johnson	PF	33:32	18	14	8	1	1	3	3	8-17	47.1	0-4	0.0	2-3	66.7	14.0
Onyeka Okongwu	C	30:37	16	7	4	2	2	3	4	4-11	36.4	2-5	40.0	6-8	75.0	13.0
RayJ Dennis	DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert	DNP - Inactive
Mouhamed Gueye		10:46	0	2	2	1	0	0	3	0-3	0.0	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	-1.0
Buddy Hield	DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan		2:49	9	3	0	0	0	0	2	3-3	100.0	3-3	100.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Corey Kispert	DNP - Coach's Decision
Christian Koloko	DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Kuminga		18:34	12	0	1	1	0	0	0	5-7	71.4	1-2	50.0	1-1	100.0	4.0
Jock Landale		14:34	8	1	1	0	0	1	3	3-4	75.0	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	10.0
Asa Newell		2:49	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Zaccharie Risacher		13:16	4	3	1	1	1	0	3	2-2	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	14.0
Gabe Vincent		12:15	5	2	1	1	0	2	3	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	2-2	100.0	5.0
Keaton Wallace		2:49	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-2	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	6.0

Orlando Magic

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Desmond Bane	SG	29:45	14	2	2	0	0	2	3	5-13	38.5	2-6	33.3	2-3	66.7	-15.0
Franz Wagner	SF	19:50	12	1	2	0	0	1	3	5-13	38.5	0-6	0.0	2-3	66.7	-12.0
Jalen Suggs	PG	25:59	7	5	9	3	1	6	3	3-12	25.0	0-5	0.0	1-1	100.0	-13.0
Paolo Banchero	PF	26:18	11	8	3	1	0	3	3	3-9	33.3	0-1	0.0	5-6	83.3	-18.0
Wendell Carter Jr.	C	25:05	14	6	0	1	1	1	2	6-9	66.7	0-2	0.0	2-2	100.0	-16.0
Goga Bitadze		15:25	4	5	1	0	2	3	3	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-5.0
Anthony Black	DNP - Inactive
Jamal Cain		26:57	17	1	0	0	0	0	3	5-9	55.6	2-6	33.3	5-5	100.0	-19.0
Jevon Carter		15:32	3	0	2	1	0	1	1	1-3	33.3	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Colin Castleton	DNP - Inactive
Tristan da Silva		23:02	9	2	6	1	0	0	2	2-5	40.0	0-1	0.0	5-5	100.0	-12.0
Jett Howard		11:28	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1-5	20.0	1-2	50.0	1-1	100.0	-6.0
Jonathan Isaac	DNP - Inactive
Noah Penda		5:39	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0-1	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-7.0
Jase Richardson		7:30	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	2-4	50.0	-8.0
Moritz Wagner		7:30	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	0-1	0.0	-8.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: ATL @ ORL

Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM

**Grade: A** — Winner right, total was close.
**Result:** ATL 130 - ORL 101 (Winner: ATL ✓)
**Prediction:** ATL 116 - ORL 112
Score error: 14/11 | Total: pred 229, actual 231 (+2)

**Standout Players:**
  Paolo Banchero (ORL): 11p actual vs 21.9p pred (+10.9)
  Jamal Cain (ORL): 17p actual vs 5.2p pred (-11.8)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ MONEYLINE ATL -168 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE ATL -170 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 232.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 232.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: ATL @ ORL

Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM

**Prediction:** ATL 115 - ORL 109 (ATL by 6, total 224)
**Confidence:** 91%

**ATL** 41-32 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 112.9 | Def: 111.1 | Rest: 1d rest
**ORL** 39-34 (#8) | Net: 0.9 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: B2B
Projected pace: 103.3

**Injuries:**
  ATL: Jock Landale (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.8 pts)
  ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out), Franz Wagner (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts)

**Key Players:**
  ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23.5p/3.2r/4.3a | Jalen Johnson 20.2p/9.0r/6.8a | CJ McCollum 18.7p/3.0r/4.0a
  ORL: Paolo Banchero 23.9p/9.2r/5.2a | Desmond Bane 19.7p/4.0r/4.6a | Tristan da Silva 14.6p/4.4r/1.7a

**Value Bets:**
  MONEYLINE ATL -168 (strong, EV $0.452/dollar)
  MONEYLINE ATL -170 (strong, EV $0.445/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 232.5 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Atlanta Hawks 130 @ 101 Orlando Magic