Philadelphia 76ers 153 @ 131 Washington Wizards

April 01, 2026 | Capital One Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

PHI WAS Total
Predicted 125 118 243
Actual 153 131 284
Diff -28 -13 -41
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Justin Edwards Pred: 6/1/1 | Actual: 5/1/1
Dominick Barlow Pred: 8/5/2 | Actual: 6/3/2
Bub Carrington Pred: 12/3/5 | Actual: 13/1/7
Jamir Watkins Pred: 5/3/1 | Actual: 7/5/2
Sharife Cooper Pred: 8/2/4 | Actual: 11/4/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Anthony Gill Pred: 7pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 14)

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
VJ Edgecombe SG 32:54 23 3 10 0 0 2 1 10-15 66.7 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 29.0
Dominick Barlow SF 21:54 6 3 2 0 0 1 1 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 34.0
Tyrese Maxey PG 34:01 28 2 9 1 0 2 1 12-20 60.0 1-5 20.0 3-4 75.0 28.0
Paul George PF 30:23 39 5 6 3 0 0 2 15-22 68.2 6-12 50.0 3-4 75.0 26.0
Adem Bona C 21:14 13 4 1 2 1 0 4 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 23.0
MarJon Beauchamp 2:59 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond 23:47 6 9 4 2 0 0 1 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Justin Edwards 9:21 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Joel Embiid DNP - Inactive
Quentin Grimes 23:07 12 4 1 0 0 2 1 5-10 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Kelly Oubre Jr. 20:50 12 4 1 1 0 2 3 5-10 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Jabari Walker 2:59 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Trendon Watford 2:59 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Johnson SG 24:21 8 4 4 0 0 3 2 3-11 27.3 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -23.0
Bilal Coulibaly SF 19:15 12 2 0 1 0 2 0 5-10 50.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 -32.0
Bub Carrington PG 31:22 13 1 7 0 1 0 3 5-14 35.7 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 -33.0
Will Riley PF 31:47 18 1 3 0 0 2 1 8-12 66.7 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Tristan Vukcevic C 11:16 17 2 2 1 0 2 3 6-7 85.7 3-3 100.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Justin Champagnie 20:45 17 7 0 1 2 0 0 7-10 70.0 0-1 0.0 3-5 60.0 5.0
Sharife Cooper 23:16 11 4 3 0 0 1 2 3-7 42.9 1-1 100.0 4-4 100.0 -1.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Gill 34:31 21 6 6 0 0 0 1 8-9 88.9 3-3 100.0 2-2 100.0 -14.0
Jaden Hardy 24:40 7 0 5 1 0 1 1 3-12 25.0 1-8 12.5 0-0 0.0 4.0
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr DNP - Coach's Decision
Jamir Watkins 18:47 7 5 2 0 0 0 1 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 2.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHI @ WAS
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** PHI 153 - WAS 131 (Winner: PHI ✓) **Prediction:** PHI 125 - WAS 118 Score error: 28/13 | Total: pred 243, actual 284 (+41) **Standout Players:** Anthony Gill (WAS): 21p actual vs 6.7p pred (-14.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 240.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 239.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: PHI @ WAS
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** PHI 125 - WAS 110 (PHI by 15, total 235) **Confidence:** 96% **PHI** 40-33 (#7) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 112.4 | Def: 112.8 | Rest: 1d rest **WAS** 17-55 (#13) | Net: -10.7 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 119.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Paul George (Out) (impact: -3.2 pts) WAS: Bilal Coulibaly (Day-To-Day), Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), Tre Johnson (Day-To-Day), D'Angelo Russell (Day-To-Day), Alex Sarr (Day-To-Day), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** PHI: Joel Embiid 35.8p/9.1r/4.3a | Tyrese Maxey 33.1p/4.3r/8.0a | VJ Edgecombe 19.5p/6.0r/5.4a WAS: Alex Sarr 15.9p/8.1r/2.9a | Tre Johnson 14.3p/2.9r/2.1a | Bub Carrington 14.0p/3.2r/6.4a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 240.5 (moderate, EV $0.217/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (slight, EV $0.180/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred