New York Knicks 94 @ 111 Houston Rockets

March 31, 2026 | Toyota Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

NYK HOU Total
Predicted 108 112 220
Actual 94 111 205
Diff +14 +1 +15
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 2/1/0
Ariel Hukporti Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 0/2/0
Jeff Green Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Jabari Smith Jr. Pred: 16/7/2 | Actual: 15/6/2
Pacôme Dadiet Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Brunson Pred: 23pts | Actual: 12pts (off by 10)

New York Knicks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Mikal Bridges SG 33:43 7 3 4 1 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
OG Anunoby SF 38:13 8 6 0 2 1 0 1 3-9 33.3 2-8 25.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Jalen Brunson PG 37:01 12 6 8 1 0 3 2 5-14 35.7 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 -26.0
Josh Hart PF 28:32 13 5 2 0 0 3 3 5-12 41.7 1-6 16.7 2-2 100.0 -22.0
Karl-Anthony Towns C 34:11 22 8 3 0 0 1 0 7-17 41.2 2-4 50.0 6-8 75.0 -11.0
Jose Alvarado 11:40 12 1 2 0 0 0 2 5-6 83.3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Jordan Clarkson 19:09 10 2 0 0 0 0 2 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Pacôme Dadiet 1:47 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Mohamed Diawara 1:52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Ariel Hukporti 1:47 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Trey Jemison III DNP - Inactive
Dillon Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyler Kolek 1:47 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Miles McBride 12:37 3 1 2 0 1 3 2 1-9 11.1 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Kevin McCullar Jr. DNP - Inactive
Mitchell Robinson 15:52 5 5 0 1 0 0 3 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -14.0
Landry Shamet DNP - Inactive
Jeremy Sochan 1:47 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tari Eason SG 30:22 17 8 3 2 1 0 4 6-10 60.0 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 21.0
Kevin Durant SF 34:31 27 6 8 0 2 2 1 10-18 55.6 4-7 57.1 3-4 75.0 28.0
Amen Thompson PG 38:50 17 4 8 0 2 1 0 8-14 57.1 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 19.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 39:04 15 6 2 1 0 1 2 5-10 50.0 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 14.0
Alperen Sengun C 29:55 13 5 10 1 0 2 5 4-5 80.0 1-2 50.0 4-6 66.7 8.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 12:07 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Inactive
JD Davison 1:47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green 1:47 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Aaron Holiday 6:23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 7:07 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Reed Sheppard 27:32 20 5 2 2 1 2 3 8-12 66.7 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 10.0
Jae'Sean Tate 10:34 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: NYK @ HOU
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** NYK 94 - HOU 111 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** NYK 108 - HOU 112 Score error: 14/1 | Total: pred 220, actual 205 (-15) **Standout Players:** Jalen Brunson (NYK): 12p actual vs 22.6p pred (+10.6) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -105 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -108 — WON ✓ SPREAD HOU 1.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD HOU 1.0 — WON
General Slate Analysis: NYK @ HOU
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** NYK 107 - HOU 111 (HOU by 4, total 219) **Confidence:** 82% **NYK** 48-26 (#3) | Net: 6.5 | Off: 116.7 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest **HOU** 43-29 (#6) | Net: 3.8 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 99.6 **Injuries:** NYK: Miles McBride (Day-To-Day), Landry Shamet (Out) (impact: -1.4 pts) HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) **Key Players:** NYK: Jalen Brunson 22.9p/2.8r/6.9a | Karl-Anthony Towns 20.8p/12.2r/1.7a | OG Anunoby 17.6p/3.1r/1.9a HOU: Kevin Durant 26.9p/5.5r/4.6a | Alperen Sengun 20.3p/9.6r/5.4a | Jabari Smith Jr. 16.3p/6.9r/1.8a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE HOU -105 (strong, EV $0.595/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -108 (strong, EV $0.574/dollar) SPREAD HOU 1.5 (moderate, EV $0.229/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred