Toronto Raptors 116 @ 127 Detroit Pistons

March 31, 2026 | Little Caesars Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

TOR DET Total
Predicted 105 109 213
Actual 116 127 243
Diff -11 -18 -30
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Garrett Temple Pred: 1/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Marcus Sasser Pred: 6/1/3 | Actual: 8/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Duren Pred: 14pts | Actual: 31pts (off by 16)
Scottie Barnes Pred: 18pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 13)
A.J. Lawson Pred: 3pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 10)

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 30:47 24 6 2 1 0 2 1 7-12 58.3 2-4 50.0 8-10 80.0 -21.0
Scottie Barnes SF 27:43 5 1 12 3 2 4 2 2-8 25.0 0-2 0.0 1-4 25.0 -21.0
Ja'Kobe Walter PG 26:40 3 4 4 3 0 1 6 1-6 16.7 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Brandon Ingram PF 30:46 22 1 0 0 0 1 2 7-15 46.7 1-6 16.7 7-8 87.5 -26.0
Jakob Poeltl C 23:28 13 4 1 1 0 0 4 6-9 66.7 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -16.0
Jamison Battle DNP - Inactive
Gradey Dick 4:11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis DNP - Inactive
A.J. Lawson 18:32 13 3 0 1 0 1 0 4-5 80.0 3-3 100.0 2-3 66.7 16.0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22:01 16 6 2 1 0 1 3 7-13 53.8 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Alijah Martin DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Mogbo DNP - Inactive
Collin Murray-Boyles 23:50 14 10 0 2 1 2 2 7-13 53.8 0-1 0.0 0-2 0.0 3.0
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Jamal Shead 29:16 6 0 12 1 0 1 2 2-7 28.6 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
Garrett Temple 1:23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 29:02 19 1 2 1 0 1 2 6-9 66.7 5-8 62.5 2-3 66.7 10.0
Ausar Thompson SF 26:10 5 7 5 2 0 3 2 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 15.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 36:35 21 5 5 0 1 3 3 5-9 55.6 2-4 50.0 9-9 100.0 13.0
Tobias Harris PF 32:56 12 5 6 0 0 1 1 4-9 44.4 1-3 33.3 3-4 75.0 7.0
Jalen Duren C 34:38 31 9 3 0 1 3 5 12-13 92.3 0-0 0.0 7-7 100.0 7.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 5:48 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Ronald Holland II 13:04 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 1.0
Kevin Huerter 21:43 8 2 3 1 0 4 1 2-6 33.3 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier DNP - Inactive
Caris LeVert 19:02 12 1 2 0 2 1 2 5-7 71.4 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 0.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 13:22 10 2 5 1 1 1 3 5-6 83.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Marcus Sasser 7:40 8 0 1 0 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Tolu Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: TOR @ DET
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** TOR 116 - DET 127 (Winner: DET ✓) **Prediction:** TOR 105 - DET 109 Score error: 11/18 | Total: pred 213, actual 243 (+30) **Standout Players:** Duncan Robinson (DET): 19p actual vs 9.0p pred (-10.0) Scottie Barnes (TOR): 5p actual vs 18.0p pred (+13.0) A.J. Lawson (TOR): 13p actual vs 3.0p pred (-10.0) Jalen Duren (DET): 31p actual vs 14.5p pred (-16.5) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE DET -142 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE DET -146 — WON ✗ TOTAL UNDER 219.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 219.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ DET
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** TOR 106 - DET 110 (DET by 4, total 215) **Confidence:** 84% **TOR** 40-32 (#6) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 112.1 | Def: 110.6 | Rest: 1d rest **DET** 53-20 (#1) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 113.9 | Def: 106.3 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** TOR: RJ Barrett (Day-To-Day), Jamison Battle (Out), Chucky Hepburn (Out), Brandon Ingram (Day-To-Day), Collin Murray-Boyles (Day-To-Day), Immanuel Quickley (Out) (impact: -4.3 pts) DET: Cade Cunningham (Day-To-Day), Jalen Duren (Out), Tobias Harris (Out), Duncan Robinson (Out), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -6.7 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: Scottie Barnes 18.1p/7.3r/9.0a | Brandon Ingram 16.7p/4.3r/2.3a | RJ Barrett 16.5p/4.0r/3.2a DET: Cade Cunningham 22.0p/4.2r/9.7a | Kevin Huerter 10.9p/2.9r/2.3a | Daniss Jenkins 10.9p/2.7r/4.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET -142 (strong, EV $0.435/dollar) MONEYLINE DET -146 (strong, EV $0.419/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 219.5 (slight, EV $0.169/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred