Charlotte Hornets 117 @ 86 Brooklyn Nets

March 31, 2026 | Barclays Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

CHA BKN Total
Predicted 118 102 220
Actual 117 86 203
Diff +1 +16 +17
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Pat Connaughton Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 2/1/0
E.J. Liddell Pred: 2/2/1 | Actual: 3/2/0
Xavier Tillman Pred: 1/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Josh Green Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 3/0/0
Tyson Etienne Pred: 8/1/2 | Actual: 5/0/1

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 29:01 25 1 3 0 1 0 1 7-13 53.8 4-8 50.0 7-7 100.0 30.0
Kon Knueppel SF 24:42 8 7 0 1 1 1 1 4-12 33.3 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 16.0
LaMelo Ball PG 27:31 14 7 9 0 0 3 3 4-12 33.3 3-10 30.0 3-4 75.0 24.0
Miles Bridges PF 23:44 19 5 2 4 1 0 0 7-12 58.3 1-4 25.0 4-4 100.0 27.0
Moussa Diabaté C 27:14 10 12 1 0 0 2 3 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 25.0
Pat Connaughton 3:38 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 13:29 3 0 0 1 0 2 2 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 22:28 0 5 3 0 0 0 4 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 17:52 8 3 0 0 1 0 2 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Tre Mann 6:03 2 2 2 1 0 0 2 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Liam McNeeley DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves 1:38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman 1:38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Coby White 21:09 16 2 5 0 0 3 3 5-12 41.7 1-6 16.7 5-6 83.3 11.0
Grant Williams 19:52 10 2 2 0 0 0 1 4-7 57.1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 2.0

Brooklyn Nets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Drake Powell SG 28:20 10 6 1 0 0 1 1 3-9 33.3 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 -15.0
Ziaire Williams SF 24:19 10 0 0 1 1 1 1 4-10 40.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 -18.0
Nolan Traore PG 22:39 10 5 4 0 0 4 3 4-8 50.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Noah Clowney PF 19:51 4 3 0 0 1 0 2 1-6 16.7 0-4 0.0 2-2 100.0 -23.0
Nic Claxton C 21:38 4 4 3 0 0 2 3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -16.0
Ochai Agbaji 9:05 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Egor Dëmin DNP - Inactive
Tyson Etienne 14:36 5 0 1 2 0 1 2 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Chaney Johnson 27:12 11 4 0 1 1 1 4 4-6 66.7 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -18.0
E.J. Liddell 8:20 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -4.0
Terance Mann DNP - Inactive
Josh Minott 22:35 14 2 0 1 1 0 1 5-12 41.7 1-7 14.3 3-3 100.0 -4.0
Michael Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Ben Saraf 18:38 7 2 3 0 0 3 1 2-6 33.3 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -22.0
Day'Ron Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Jalen Wilson 9:05 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -4.0
Danny Wolf DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CHA @ BKN
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** CHA 117 - BKN 86 (Winner: CHA ✓) **Prediction:** CHA 118 - BKN 102 Score error: 1/16 | Total: pred 220, actual 203 (-17)
General Slate Analysis: CHA @ BKN
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** CHA 117 - BKN 102 (CHA by 15, total 219) **Confidence:** 96% **CHA** 39-34 (#9) | Net: 4.6 | Off: 114.6 | Def: 110.0 | Rest: 1d rest **BKN** 17-56 (#14) | Net: -9.4 | Off: 106.2 | Def: 115.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.4 **Injuries:** CHA: Tidjane Salaün (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) BKN: Egor Dëmin (Out), Terance Mann (Out), Michael Porter Jr. (Out), Day'Ron Sharpe (Out), Jalen Wilson (Day-To-Day), Danny Wolf (Out) (impact: -8.5 pts) **Key Players:** CHA: Brandon Miller 21.0p/4.6r/3.9a | LaMelo Ball 20.4p/4.0r/8.2a | Coby White 18.9p/4.0r/3.7a BKN: Nic Claxton 13.7p/8.1r/3.1a | Noah Clowney 12.2p/5.3r/1.8a | Ziaire Williams 11.4p/2.9r/1.6a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred