Phoenix Suns 111 @ 115 Orlando Magic

March 31, 2026 | Kia Center | Final

Grade: D Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

Scores were actually close but somehow picked the wrong winner. Pain.

PHX ORL Total
Predicted 112 108 220
Actual 111 115 226
Diff +1 -7 -6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Desmond Bane Pred: 23/4/4 | Actual: 21/6/5
Jordan Goodwin Pred: 12/7/3 | Actual: 9/5/2
Tristan da Silva Pred: 12/4/2 | Actual: 9/3/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Green Pred: 25pts | Actual: 8pts (off by 16)
Grayson Allen Pred: 21pts | Actual: 10pts (off by 11)

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 36:07 34 3 7 1 0 4 4 8-16 50.0 2-6 33.3 16-19 84.2 -14.0
Jalen Green SF 19:43 8 1 2 2 0 4 1 3-10 30.0 0-5 0.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Collin Gillespie PG 27:26 11 2 3 2 0 2 3 4-8 50.0 2-6 33.3 1-1 100.0 5.0
Dillon Brooks PF 21:45 9 5 0 0 0 1 5 4-13 30.8 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Oso Ighodaro C 24:30 5 10 5 0 1 2 5 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Grayson Allen 32:14 10 2 1 0 0 2 6 4-14 28.6 2-10 20.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Jamaree Bouyea DNP - Coach's Decision
Koby Brea DNP - Coach's Decision
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn DNP - Coach's Decision
Rasheer Fleming 15:49 11 4 0 0 0 2 3 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 2-4 50.0 7.0
Jordan Goodwin 29:01 9 5 2 3 0 2 0 2-8 25.0 2-4 50.0 3-5 60.0 2.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 2:42 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Royce O'Neale 30:42 14 9 4 1 1 1 4 4-8 50.0 4-7 57.1 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive

Orlando Magic

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Desmond Bane SG 37:19 21 6 5 1 1 5 4 6-16 37.5 2-6 33.3 7-8 87.5 5.0
Tristan da Silva SF 25:08 9 3 0 1 0 0 5 3-11 27.3 0-4 0.0 3-3 100.0 7.0
Jalen Suggs PG 37:42 20 8 7 4 0 6 4 6-11 54.5 2-5 40.0 6-6 100.0 15.0
Paolo Banchero PF 37:09 19 9 8 0 0 4 4 6-14 42.9 1-3 33.3 6-9 66.7 14.0
Wendell Carter Jr. C 28:26 15 12 0 2 0 6 4 4-7 57.1 1-1 100.0 6-7 85.7 6.0
Goga Bitadze 14:02 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 -3.0
Anthony Black DNP - Inactive
Jamal Cain 19:43 12 3 1 3 0 0 2 4-5 80.0 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Jevon Carter 22:07 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0-6 0.0 0-5 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Colin Castleton DNP - Inactive
Jett Howard 14:21 12 2 0 0 0 1 2 4-6 66.7 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 -13.0
Jonathan Isaac DNP - Inactive
Noah Penda DNP - Coach's Decision
Jase Richardson DNP - Coach's Decision
Franz Wagner DNP - Inactive
Moritz Wagner 4:03 4 1 1 1 0 1 1 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHX @ ORL
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: D** — Scores close but wrong winner. **Result:** PHX 111 - ORL 115 (Winner: ORL ✗) **Prediction:** PHX 112 - ORL 108 Score error: 1/7 | Total: pred 220, actual 226 (+6) **Standout Players:** Grayson Allen (PHX): 10p actual vs 21.1p pred (+11.1) Jalen Green (PHX): 8p actual vs 24.9p pred (+16.9) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE PHX 114 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE PHX 112 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 225.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 224.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD PHX 2.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD PHX 2.0 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: PHX @ ORL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** PHX 111 - ORL 107 (PHX by 4, total 217) **Confidence:** 80% **PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: B2B **ORL** 39-34 (#8) | Net: 0.9 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.0 **Injuries:** PHX: Grayson Allen (Day-To-Day), Dillon Brooks (Out), Amir Coffey (Out), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -8.1 pts) ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out), Franz Wagner (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts) **Key Players:** PHX: Devin Booker 23.3p/2.9r/5.9a | Jalen Green 22.5p/5.2r/4.2a | Grayson Allen 19.2p/3.0r/3.2a ORL: Paolo Banchero 28.1p/9.2r/6.3a | Desmond Bane 23.2p/4.0r/4.5a | Tristan da Silva 11.9p/4.4r/1.9a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE PHX 114 (strong, EV $0.714/dollar) MONEYLINE PHX 112 (strong, EV $0.698/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 225.5 (strong, EV $0.338/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred