Washington Wizards 101 @ 120 Los Angeles Lakers

March 30, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

WAS LAL Total
Predicted 103 129 232
Actual 101 120 221
Diff +2 +9 +11
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Anthony Gill Pred: 10/4/1 | Actual: 11/5/1
Kobe Bufkin Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 2/0/0
Jake LaRavia Pred: 6/4/1 | Actual: 4/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Bub Carrington Pred: 16pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 10)

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Johnson SG 22:54 11 6 2 2 0 1 4 5-12 41.7 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Justin Champagnie SF 26:53 18 4 2 1 0 0 2 8-12 66.7 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 11.0
Bub Carrington PG 28:17 5 1 7 0 0 4 2 2-6 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -20.0
Will Riley PF 35:58 20 2 2 1 0 2 2 8-19 42.1 1-7 14.3 3-3 100.0 -22.0
Tristan Vukcevic C 20:03 14 3 1 4 1 0 3 4-12 33.3 1-6 16.7 5-6 83.3 -16.0
Sharife Cooper 19:59 3 2 5 0 0 1 1 1-6 16.7 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 2.0
Bilal Coulibaly DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Gill 35:59 11 5 1 1 1 0 3 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -21.0
Jaden Hardy 22:27 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 -12.0
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr DNP - Coach's Decision
Jamir Watkins 27:29 8 5 5 2 0 1 5 4-11 36.4 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jake LaRavia SG 27:54 4 3 2 3 1 0 3 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 23.0
LeBron James SF 33:02 21 10 12 0 1 4 0 8-16 50.0 1-3 33.3 4-6 66.7 25.0
Austin Reaves PG 27:13 19 3 9 1 0 5 0 4-11 36.4 0-4 0.0 11-12 91.7 6.0
Rui Hachimura PF 25:36 14 6 0 0 0 0 2 6-10 60.0 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 9.0
Deandre Ayton C 22:26 12 7 1 0 3 2 0 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 9.0
Kobe Bufkin 2:39 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Luka DončiΔ‡ DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaxson Hayes 19:45 19 7 0 0 2 0 1 8-8 100.0 1-1 100.0 2-3 66.7 18.0
Bronny James 25:39 6 1 1 1 0 2 2 2-10 20.0 0-5 0.0 2-2 100.0 4.0
Luke Kennard 23:00 19 2 1 1 0 1 3 7-10 70.0 4-5 80.0 1-1 100.0 20.0
Maxi Kleber DNP - Coach's Decision
Dalton Knecht 3:51 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Chris MaΓ±on DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr. DNP - Inactive
Adou Thiero DNP - Inactive
Drew Timme 5:49 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jarred Vanderbilt 23:06 4 8 1 1 0 1 0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 2-4 50.0 5.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: WAS @ LAL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: A** β€” Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** WAS 101 - LAL 120 (Winner: LAL βœ“) **Prediction:** WAS 103 - LAL 129 Score error: 2/9 | Total: pred 232, actual 221 (-11) **Standout Players:** Bub Carrington (WAS): 5p actual vs 15.5p pred (+10.5) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ SPREAD LAL -15.5 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD LAL -16.5 β€” WON βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 235.5 β€” WON βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 235.5 β€” WON
General Slate Analysis: WAS @ LAL
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** WAS 103 - LAL 129 (LAL by 25, total 232) **Confidence:** 97% **WAS** 17-55 (#13) | Net: -10.7 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 119.0 | Rest: B2B **LAL** 47-26 (#3) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 114.3 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 102.2 **Injuries:** WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), Tre Johnson (Day-To-Day), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Alex Sarr (Day-To-Day), Tristan Vukcevic (Out), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) LAL: Rui Hachimura (Out), Marcus Smart (Out), Nick Smith Jr. (Day-To-Day) (impact: -3.7 pts) **Key Players:** WAS: Bub Carrington 15.5p/2.9r/5.9a | Will Riley 15.1p/3.3r/3.4a | Bilal Coulibaly 12.6p/3.8r/2.8a LAL: Luka DončiΔ‡ 45.0p/8.0r/8.8a | Austin Reaves 25.9p/4.5r/6.3a | LeBron James 21.2p/6.6r/7.6a **Value Bets:** SPREAD LAL -15.5 (strong, EV $0.468/dollar) SPREAD LAL -16.5 (strong, EV $0.441/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 235.5 (slight, EV $0.142/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred