Detroit Pistons 110 @ 114 Oklahoma City Thunder

March 30, 2026 | Paycom Center | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

DET OKC Total
Predicted 105 114 219
Actual 110 114 224
Diff -5 0 -5
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Aaron Wiggins Pred: 10/3/2 | Actual: 10/2/1
Jared McCain Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 7/2/0
Chaz Lanier Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Isaiah Joe Pred: 7/2/1 | Actual: 6/1/0
Caris LeVert Pred: 9/2/3 | Actual: 10/4/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Pred: 23pts | Actual: 47pts (off by 24)
Paul Reed Pred: 9pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 12)
Javonte Green Pred: 7pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 12)

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Kevin Huerter SG 38:18 17 6 6 1 0 1 2 7-16 43.8 3-9 33.3 0-1 0.0 -11.0
Javonte Green SF 30:19 19 5 1 2 0 0 4 6-12 50.0 5-11 45.5 2-2 100.0 5.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 36:15 15 4 6 2 0 5 2 7-17 41.2 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Ausar Thompson PF 25:47 8 7 5 3 1 2 6 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 2-6 33.3 19.0
Paul Reed C 34:09 21 10 2 1 4 3 2 7-13 53.8 1-2 50.0 6-8 75.0 -5.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Jalen Duren DNP - Inactive
Tobias Harris DNP - Inactive
Ronald Holland II 24:08 4 2 1 3 0 1 6 2-7 28.6 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -21.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Coach's Decision
Chaz Lanier 12:49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-4 0.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Caris LeVert 26:02 10 4 2 0 1 1 2 4-11 36.4 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Duncan Robinson DNP - Inactive
Marcus Sasser 18:17 12 1 4 0 1 2 2 4-9 44.4 4-6 66.7 0-2 0.0 4.0
Tolu Smith 18:51 4 7 3 0 1 1 2 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 1.0
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ajay Mitchell SG 35:52 14 2 3 2 1 1 3 4-10 40.0 0-1 0.0 6-6 100.0 5.0
Cason Wallace SF 26:33 9 0 1 0 0 1 2 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 40:32 47 5 3 2 0 4 4 12-19 63.2 2-3 66.7 21-25 84.0 8.0
Luguentz Dort PF 22:00 2 3 2 0 0 1 1 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Chet Holmgren C 29:47 13 9 1 2 2 3 6 6-11 54.5 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 1.0
Brooks Barnhizer DNP - Coach's Decision
Branden Carlson DNP - Coach's Decision
Alex Caruso 27:04 3 1 4 1 0 1 2 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Isaiah Hartenstein DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Joe 14:14 6 1 0 1 0 1 1 2-5 40.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Jared McCain 14:20 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 3-5 60.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -1.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Wiggins 17:21 10 2 1 1 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Jaylin Williams 31:33 3 13 2 0 3 3 4 1-6 16.7 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Jalen Williams DNP - Inactive
Kenrich Williams 5:41 0 4 0 0 0 1 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DET @ OKC
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: S** β€” Nailed it. **Result:** DET 110 - OKC 114 (Winner: OKC βœ“) **Prediction:** DET 105 - OKC 114 Score error: 5/0 | Total: pred 219, actual 224 (+5) **Standout Players:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 47p actual vs 22.6p pred (-24.4) Javonte Green (DET): 19p actual vs 6.8p pred (-12.2) Paul Reed (DET): 21p actual vs 8.7p pred (-12.3) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ SPREAD DET 13.5 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD DET 13.5 β€” WON
General Slate Analysis: DET @ OKC
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** DET 105 - OKC 114 (OKC by 9, total 219) **Confidence:** 85% **DET** 53-20 (#1) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 113.9 | Def: 106.3 | Rest: 1d rest **OKC** 57-16 (#1) | Net: 10.7 | Off: 115.9 | Def: 105.2 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 102.1 **Injuries:** DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Wendell Moore Jr. (Out), Marcus Sasser (Available), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) **Key Players:** DET: Jalen Duren 20.3p/13.2r/2.3a | Duncan Robinson 13.3p/3.5r/2.6a | Tobias Harris 11.2p/6.9r/2.8a OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 22.6p/2.7r/4.8a | Jalen Williams 13.2p/2.9r/4.0a | Chet Holmgren 11.2p/6.4r/1.1a **Value Bets:** SPREAD DET 13.5 (moderate, EV $0.234/dollar) SPREAD DET 13.5 (moderate, EV $0.202/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred