Minnesota Timberwolves 124 @ 94 Dallas Mavericks

March 30, 2026 | American Airlines Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

MIN DAL Total
Predicted 118 115 234
Actual 124 94 218
Diff -6 +21 +16
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 4/2/1
AJ Johnson Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 0/1/1
Jaylen Clark Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 2/2/0
Ryan Nembhard Pred: 5/2/5 | Actual: 8/3/5

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donte DiVincenzo SG 29:40 15 3 2 1 1 2 1 5-11 45.5 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 30.0
Ayo Dosunmu SF 33:15 18 15 12 3 0 1 0 8-13 61.5 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 30.0
Julius Randle PF 31:24 24 3 4 0 0 0 4 9-14 64.3 3-4 75.0 3-7 42.9 26.0
Rudy Gobert C 28:16 14 10 1 1 2 2 5 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 27.0
Kyle Anderson 18:09 0 3 4 1 1 1 4 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Joan Beringer 4:57 6 2 0 0 1 0 1 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jaylen Clark 4:29 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Anthony Edwards 22:37 17 2 4 0 0 3 2 7-13 53.8 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 29.0
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 23:24 12 4 3 1 0 0 3 5-10 50.0 1-5 20.0 1-1 100.0 9.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaden McDaniels DNP - Inactive
Julian Phillips DNP - Coach's Decision
Naz Reid 24:51 12 5 0 0 1 1 4 5-14 35.7 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 2.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4:57 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 28:01 3 4 0 1 0 0 1 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -29.0
Cooper Flagg SF 30:43 12 4 1 0 2 2 1 5-19 26.3 0-3 0.0 2-4 50.0 -35.0
Ryan Nembhard PG 20:13 8 3 5 0 0 1 0 3-10 30.0 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -9.0
Khris Middleton PF 22:36 9 6 1 1 0 5 2 4-10 40.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -24.0
Daniel Gafford C 24:23 21 8 2 0 1 1 4 9-11 81.8 0-0 0.0 3-8 37.5 -23.0
Marvin Bagley III DNP - Coach's Decision
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson 4:57 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Naji Marshall DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Dwight Powell 23:37 9 8 2 1 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9-10 90.0 -7.0
Klay Thompson 22:03 5 2 2 0 0 2 2 1-8 12.5 1-6 16.7 2-2 100.0 -9.0
P.J. Washington DNP - Inactive
Brandon Williams 27:47 15 6 7 2 0 3 0 4-10 40.0 1-3 33.3 6-6 100.0 -21.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MIN @ DAL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** MIN 124 - DAL 94 (Winner: MIN ✓) **Prediction:** MIN 118 - DAL 115 Score error: 6/21 | Total: pred 234, actual 218 (-16) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD DAL 6.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DAL 7.0 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE MIN -255 — WON
General Slate Analysis: MIN @ DAL
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** MIN 118 - DAL 115 (MIN by 3, total 234) **Confidence:** 78% **MIN** 45-28 (#5) | Net: 3.7 | Off: 114.5 | Def: 110.8 | Rest: 1d rest **DAL** 23-50 (#13) | Net: -5.0 | Off: 108.5 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 103.4 **Injuries:** MIN: Anthony Edwards (Out) (impact: -6.0 pts) DAL: Daniel Gafford (Out), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out), Brandon Williams (Available) (impact: -1.4 pts) **Key Players:** MIN: Julius Randle 22.4p/7.6r/5.0a | Ayo Dosunmu 18.8p/5.0r/5.0a | Jaden McDaniels 17.7p/5.5r/3.2a DAL: Cooper Flagg 16.8p/5.4r/3.9a | P.J. Washington 15.5p/8.4r/1.3a | Naji Marshall 15.4p/4.5r/2.8a **Value Bets:** SPREAD DAL 6.5 (slight, EV $0.198/dollar) SPREAD DAL 7.0 (moderate, EV $0.164/dollar) MONEYLINE MIN -255 (slight, EV $0.082/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred