CHI @ SAS - NBA Local

Grade: A Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

	CHI	SAS	Total
Predicted	105	131	236
Actual	114	129	243
Diff	-9	+2	-7

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Rob Dillingham Pred: 6/2/2 | Actual: 6/1/1

Collin Sexton Pred: 19/2/3 | Actual: 20/3/3

Lachlan Olbrich Pred: 2/3/0 | Actual: 0/1/0

Isaac Okoro Pred: 9/2/2 | Actual: 6/3/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Leonard Miller Pred: 7pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 13)

De'Aaron Fox Pred: 20pts | Actual: 7pts (off by 12)

Victor Wembanyama Pred: 30pts | Actual: 41pts (off by 11)

Chicago Bulls

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Tre Jones	SG	25:42	23	2	3	0	0	1	1	9-13	69.2	2-3	66.7	3-3	100.0	-7.0
Isaac Okoro	SF	25:15	6	3	0	1	0	0	5	2-5	40.0	1-3	33.3	1-2	50.0	-10.0
Josh Giddey	PG	32:57	9	7	10	0	1	2	0	3-5	60.0	2-3	66.7	1-2	50.0	-18.0
Matas Buzelis	PF	27:57	12	6	2	1	3	2	2	5-12	41.7	1-6	16.7	1-1	100.0	-28.0
Guerschon Yabusele	C	30:12	15	5	2	1	0	1	4	4-10	40.0	1-6	16.7	6-8	75.0	-8.0
Zach Collins	DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham		20:20	6	1	1	1	1	2	1	3-12	25.0	0-5	0.0	0-0	0.0	2.0
Noa Essengue	DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura	DNP - Coach's Decision
Mac McClung	DNP - Inactive
Leonard Miller		25:13	21	6	4	1	1	0	4	9-14	64.3	3-8	37.5	0-0	0.0	-9.0
Lachlan Olbrich		3:44	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-2	0.0	0.0
Nick Richards	DNP - Inactive
Collin Sexton		27:23	20	3	3	1	0	1	3	8-15	53.3	3-6	50.0	1-1	100.0	0.0
Anfernee Simons	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Smith	DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams		21:15	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0-7	0.0	0-4	0.0	2-2	100.0	3.0

San Antonio Spurs

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Stephon Castle	SG	34:36	21	8	10	1	0	4	1	6-12	50.0	3-6	50.0	6-10	60.0	24.0
Devin Vassell	SF	30:43	6	7	3	1	0	0	1	2-9	22.2	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	20.0
De'Aaron Fox	PG	23:12	7	2	6	2	0	3	2	3-8	37.5	0-3	0.0	1-2	50.0	9.0
Julian Champagnie	PF	28:03	13	8	3	0	0	0	1	5-7	71.4	3-5	60.0	0-0	0.0	9.0
Victor Wembanyama	C	30:29	41	16	4	1	3	2	2	17-27	63.0	3-6	50.0	4-4	100.0	15.0
Harrison Barnes		17:17	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	1-5	20.0	0-2	0.0	1-2	50.0	-5.0
Bismack Biyombo	DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant		6:25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-1	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-4.0
Dylan Harper		23:31	13	6	3	1	1	1	4	6-11	54.5	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	4.0
Harrison Ingram	DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson		26:29	15	2	1	1	0	1	0	5-11	45.5	2-5	40.0	3-4	75.0	11.0
David Jones Garcia	DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet		19:14	10	5	1	0	0	0	2	4-5	80.0	0-0	0.0	2-2	100.0	-8.0
Jordan McLaughlin	DNP - Coach's Decision
Emanuel Miller	DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk	DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III	DNP - Coach's Decision

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: CHI @ SAS

Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM

**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close.
**Result:** CHI 114 - SAS 129 (Winner: SAS ✓)
**Prediction:** CHI 105 - SAS 131
Score error: 9/2 | Total: pred 236, actual 243 (+7)

**Standout Players:**
  De'Aaron Fox (SAS): 7p actual vs 19.7p pred (+12.7)
  Leonard Miller (CHI): 21p actual vs 7.4p pred (-13.6)
  Victor Wembanyama (SAS): 41p actual vs 29.9p pred (-11.1)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ SPREAD SAS -18.0 — LOST
  ✗ SPREAD SAS -17.5 — LOST
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 243.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 243.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: CHI @ SAS

Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM

**Prediction:** CHI 105 - SAS 131 (SAS by 25, total 236)
**Confidence:** 97%

**CHI** 29-43 (#12) | Net: -4.3 | Off: 111.1 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 1d rest
**SAS** 55-18 (#2) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.5 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 103.3

**Injuries:**
  CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Available), Anfernee Simons (Out), Guerschon Yabusele (Available) (impact: -4.0 pts)
  SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts)

**Key Players:**
  CHI: Collin Sexton 19.2p/1.8r/3.3a | Matas Buzelis 18.6p/7.1r/1.5a | Tre Jones 17.7p/5.1r/6.9a
  SAS: Victor Wembanyama 29.9p/13.5r/4.0a | De'Aaron Fox 19.7p/3.6r/5.9a | Stephon Castle 18.3p/4.9r/10.2a

**Value Bets:**
  SPREAD SAS -18.0 (strong, EV $0.380/dollar)
  SPREAD SAS -17.5 (strong, EV $0.355/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 243.5 (moderate, EV $0.312/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Chicago Bulls 114 @ 129 San Antonio Spurs