Phoenix Suns 131 @ 105 Memphis Grizzlies

March 30, 2026 | FedExForum | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

PHX MEM Total
Predicted 116 108 224
Actual 131 105 236
Diff -15 +3 -12
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Koby Brea Pred: 4/0/1 | Actual: 3/0/2
GG Jackson Pred: 12/5/1 | Actual: 14/4/2

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 25:45 36 2 5 0 0 3 1 16-24 66.7 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 5.0
Jalen Green SF 24:22 21 6 1 2 0 1 3 9-18 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 1.0
Collin Gillespie PG 32:13 11 5 10 0 0 2 2 4-16 25.0 3-11 27.3 0-0 0.0 14.0
Royce O'Neale PF 24:22 9 4 1 0 0 1 2 3-7 42.9 2-6 33.3 1-2 50.0 1.0
Oso Ighodaro C 34:41 11 5 8 0 1 0 3 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 12.0
Grayson Allen DNP - Inactive
Jamaree Bouyea 5:37 8 1 0 1 0 0 1 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Koby Brea 3:54 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Dillon Brooks DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn 21:39 6 8 2 2 0 1 0 3-5 60.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Rasheer Fleming 23:37 11 1 1 3 0 0 1 5-11 45.5 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 25.0
Jordan Goodwin 28:13 9 4 8 5 1 1 1 3-9 33.3 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 22.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 13:19 6 11 0 0 3 1 0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 14.0
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cam Spencer SG 18:27 16 3 5 0 0 2 0 6-9 66.7 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Cedric Coward SF 23:53 7 3 3 0 1 1 1 1-7 14.3 0-3 0.0 5-5 100.0 -17.0
Jahmai Mashack PG 37:27 14 3 2 2 0 4 1 5-11 45.5 1-5 20.0 3-4 75.0 -32.0
GG Jackson PF 16:54 14 4 2 0 1 4 0 6-7 85.7 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Taylor Hendricks C 17:40 5 2 0 0 0 1 3 2-5 40.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 5.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Inactive
Walter Clayton Jr. 29:33 11 3 7 1 1 4 2 4-6 66.7 1-1 100.0 2-2 100.0 -22.0
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Ty Jerome DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Olivier-Maxence Prosper DNP - Coach's Decision
Rayan Rupert DNP - Inactive
Javon Small DNP - Inactive
Jaylen Wells DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHX @ MEM
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** PHX 131 - MEM 105 (Winner: PHX ✓) **Prediction:** PHX 116 - MEM 108 Score error: 15/3 | Total: pred 224, actual 236 (+12) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD MEM 13.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD MEM 13.0 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 229.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 229.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: PHX @ MEM
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** PHX 116 - MEM 108 (PHX by 7, total 224) **Confidence:** 92% **PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: 1d rest **MEM** 24-48 (#12) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 114.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.1 **Injuries:** PHX: Grayson Allen (Available), Dillon Brooks (Out), Amir Coffey (Out), Royce O'Neale (Available), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Cedric Coward (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Javon Small (Available), Cam Spencer (Day-To-Day), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** PHX: Devin Booker 30.3p/3.4r/8.1a | Jalen Green 26.0p/4.9r/4.6a | Grayson Allen 21.6p/2.9r/4.4a MEM: Ty Jerome 21.2p/3.0r/6.7a | GG Jackson 12.3p/4.6r/1.3a | Javon Small 11.5p/3.3r/4.6a **Value Bets:** SPREAD MEM 13.5 (moderate, EV $0.299/dollar) SPREAD MEM 13.0 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 229.5 (moderate, EV $0.207/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred