Boston Celtics 102 @ 112 Atlanta Hawks

March 30, 2026 | State Farm Arena | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

BOS ATL Total
Predicted 113 107 220
Actual 102 112 214
Diff +11 -5 +6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Max Shulga Pred: 0/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
John Tonje Pred: 0/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Hugo González Pred: 4/3/0 | Actual: 5/4/0
Gabe Vincent Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 2/1/1
Mouhamed Gueye Pred: 4/4/1 | Actual: 2/4/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Luka Garza Pred: 9pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 11)
Onyeka Okongwu Pred: 10pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 10)

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Baylor Scheierman SG 25:42 3 2 2 1 0 1 0 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Jaylen Brown SF 40:05 29 10 9 1 0 6 3 9-29 31.0 3-9 33.3 8-14 57.1 -5.0
Derrick White PG 35:39 7 5 4 1 2 1 2 3-12 25.0 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jordan Walsh PF 31:19 8 4 1 2 1 1 4 2-5 40.0 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 0.0
Luka Garza C 28:13 20 9 1 0 1 0 2 8-9 88.9 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 6.0
Charles Bassey 5:52 3 2 0 0 2 1 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Hugo González 12:32 5 4 0 0 0 2 1 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Ron Harper Jr. DNP - Inactive
Sam Hauser 21:02 7 3 0 0 0 1 2 2-5 40.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Payton Pritchard 25:33 16 2 0 0 0 1 1 6-14 42.9 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Neemias Queta DNP - Coach's Decision
Max Shulga 0:17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jayson Tatum DNP - Inactive
John Tonje 0:17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Nikola Vučević DNP - Inactive
Amari Williams 13:25 4 7 1 1 1 1 2 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -8.0

Atlanta Hawks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG 34:58 17 4 6 0 0 1 3 6-16 37.5 3-8 37.5 2-3 66.7 1.0
Dyson Daniels SF 37:33 18 5 5 2 0 1 2 8-11 72.7 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 8.0
CJ McCollum PG 30:18 14 1 6 0 2 2 2 6-17 35.3 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 11.0
Jalen Johnson PF 36:00 20 12 5 0 0 3 2 7-13 53.8 1-2 50.0 5-6 83.3 -8.0
Onyeka Okongwu C 36:17 20 10 3 3 1 2 3 7-14 50.0 4-10 40.0 2-2 100.0 12.0
RayJ Dennis DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert DNP - Inactive
Mouhamed Gueye 11:42 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Buddy Hield DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan DNP - Coach's Decision
Corey Kispert DNP - Coach's Decision
Christian Koloko DNP - Coach's Decision
Jonathan Kuminga 23:19 10 6 1 0 2 1 4 4-11 36.4 0-3 0.0 2-3 66.7 14.0
Jock Landale DNP - Inactive
Asa Newell DNP - Coach's Decision
Zaccharie Risacher 15:33 9 2 0 1 1 0 3 3-4 75.0 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Gabe Vincent 14:19 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Keaton Wallace DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: BOS @ ATL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** BOS 102 - ATL 112 (Winner: ATL ✗) **Prediction:** BOS 113 - ATL 107 Score error: 11/5 | Total: pred 220, actual 214 (-6) **Standout Players:** Onyeka Okongwu (ATL): 20p actual vs 9.9p pred (-10.1) Luka Garza (BOS): 20p actual vs 8.7p pred (-11.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE BOS -102 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE BOS -106 — LOST ✗ SPREAD BOS 1.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD BOS 1.0 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: BOS @ ATL
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** BOS 113 - ATL 107 (BOS by 6, total 220) **Confidence:** 82% **BOS** 48-24 (#2) | Net: 7.3 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.8 | Rest: B2B **ATL** 41-32 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 112.9 | Def: 111.1 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.2 **Injuries:** BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) ATL: Jalen Johnson (Available) (impact: 0 pts) **Key Players:** BOS: Jaylen Brown 27.1p/5.5r/4.4a | Jayson Tatum 21.9p/9.2r/4.6a | Payton Pritchard 20.7p/4.1r/3.7a ATL: Jalen Johnson 18.7p/8.5r/6.6a | Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16.9p/2.7r/3.8a | CJ McCollum 15.0p/2.8r/3.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE BOS -102 (strong, EV $0.618/dollar) MONEYLINE BOS -106 (strong, EV $0.588/dollar) SPREAD BOS 1.5 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred