Utah Jazz 109 @ 134 Phoenix Suns

March 28, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

UTA PHX Total
Predicted 101 121 222
Actual 109 134 243
Diff -8 -13 -21
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Koby Brea Pred: 3/0/1 | Actual: 3/0/1
Oscar Tshiebwe Pred: 6/6/1 | Actual: 7/7/1
Ace Bailey Pred: 15/6/2 | Actual: 13/6/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Collin Gillespie Pred: 19pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 18)
Kyle Filipowski Pred: 9pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 17)
Brice Sensabaugh Pred: 15pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 11)

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brice Sensabaugh SG 33:23 26 2 2 0 0 1 2 11-21 52.4 2-5 40.0 2-3 66.7 -25.0
Ace Bailey SF 34:03 13 6 2 0 3 4 1 5-15 33.3 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 -19.0
Elijah Harkless PG 26:52 4 5 5 0 0 0 2 1-6 16.7 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 -24.0
Cody Williams PF 28:47 0 2 2 1 1 3 2 0-9 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -31.0
Kyle Filipowski C 29:21 26 9 3 2 0 1 3 10-14 71.4 2-2 100.0 4-4 100.0 -12.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 21:42 3 3 5 1 0 0 1 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -24.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk 9:12 14 2 1 1 0 0 0 5-7 71.4 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Oscar Tshiebwe 16:17 7 7 1 2 0 0 1 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-4 25.0 -9.0

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 26:42 26 3 8 1 1 1 1 8-14 57.1 1-5 20.0 9-10 90.0 21.0
Jalen Green SF 22:07 31 6 3 0 0 0 1 13-22 59.1 5-11 45.5 0-0 0.0 9.0
Collin Gillespie PG 27:27 0 3 7 1 1 1 1 0-8 0.0 0-8 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Royce O'Neale PF 21:57 6 3 2 0 0 0 1 2-7 28.6 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 15.0
Oso Ighodaro C 28:22 13 8 2 0 1 4 2 6-6 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-4 25.0 19.0
Grayson Allen 20:41 19 3 3 2 0 2 1 7-16 43.8 4-11 36.4 1-1 100.0 14.0
Jamaree Bouyea 6:15 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Koby Brea 5:09 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Dillon Brooks DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn 20:07 9 8 2 2 0 2 3 4-7 57.1 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 5.0
Rasheer Fleming 18:26 7 6 0 0 1 1 2 3-7 42.9 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 14.0
Jordan Goodwin 23:09 8 9 1 2 0 1 2 3-7 42.9 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 13.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 19:38 12 9 0 0 2 0 1 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 6.0
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: UTA @ PHX
Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** UTA 109 - PHX 134 (Winner: PHX ✓) **Prediction:** UTA 101 - PHX 121 Score error: 8/13 | Total: pred 222, actual 243 (+21) **Standout Players:** Collin Gillespie (PHX): 0p actual vs 18.8p pred (+18.8) Brice Sensabaugh (UTA): 26p actual vs 14.9p pred (-11.1) Cody Williams (UTA): 0p actual vs 11.0p pred (+11.0) Kyle Filipowski (UTA): 26p actual vs 9.0p pred (-17.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 230.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 229.5 — LOST ✓ SPREAD PHX -16.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD PHX -16.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: UTA @ PHX
Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** UTA 101 - PHX 121 (PHX by 20, total 222) **Confidence:** 96% **UTA** 21-52 (#14) | Net: -7.4 | Off: 111.3 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: B2B **PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: 3d rest Projected pace: 102.2 **Injuries:** UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out), Cody Williams (Available) (impact: -10.0 pts) PHX: Grayson Allen (Available), Dillon Brooks (Out), Amir Coffey (Out), Royce O'Neale (Available), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) **Key Players:** UTA: Brice Sensabaugh 14.9p/2.8r/1.6a | Ace Bailey 14.8p/5.8r/2.4a | Cody Williams 11.0p/2.4r/2.0a PHX: Devin Booker 32.0p/4.7r/7.7a | Jalen Green 23.3p/4.4r/4.8a | Grayson Allen 21.1p/3.7r/5.5a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 229.5 (moderate, EV $0.336/dollar) SPREAD PHX -16.5 (slight, EV $0.155/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred