Detroit Pistons 109 @ 87 Minnesota Timberwolves

March 28, 2026 | Target Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

DET MIN Total
Predicted 112 112 224
Actual 109 87 196
Diff +3 +25 +28
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Caris LeVert Pred: 9/3/4 | Actual: 8/2/4
Chaz Lanier Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 2/0/0
Joe Ingles Pred: 1/0/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Julian Phillips Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/1
Kevin Huerter Pred: 10/3/2 | Actual: 11/2/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Duren Pred: 24pts | Actual: 10pts (off by 14)
Julius Randle Pred: 22pts | Actual: 11pts (off by 10)

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 24:14 10 2 2 0 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 12.0
Ausar Thompson SF 24:01 6 6 0 4 0 1 3 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 27:35 13 8 4 0 0 3 4 6-16 37.5 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Tobias Harris PF 28:01 18 4 4 1 3 2 1 7-10 70.0 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 10.0
Jalen Duren C 29:03 10 13 5 0 1 3 5 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 8.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 13:35 6 5 1 1 0 0 1 2-4 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Ronald Holland II 19:59 13 2 0 2 2 4 1 4-7 57.1 2-4 50.0 3-5 60.0 12.0
Kevin Huerter 21:45 11 2 1 1 0 2 1 5-11 45.5 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Inactive
Chaz Lanier 2:01 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Caris LeVert 20:12 8 2 4 1 2 2 3 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 16:56 12 7 3 1 1 1 0 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 13.0
Marcus Sasser 10:37 0 1 4 0 0 1 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Tolu Smith 2:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donte DiVincenzo SG 33:04 22 3 2 0 2 1 0 7-18 38.9 5-14 35.7 3-4 75.0 -8.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. SF 25:09 8 3 3 0 0 0 2 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 3-5 60.0 0.0
Julius Randle PF 30:45 11 8 4 0 1 4 2 2-13 15.4 0-3 0.0 7-7 100.0 -13.0
Rudy Gobert C 31:59 14 12 0 0 1 2 3 6-9 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -11.0
Kyle Anderson 15:54 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Joan Beringer 3:45 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -1.0
Jaylen Clark 17:41 9 4 0 0 0 1 1 2-6 33.3 0-2 0.0 5-6 83.3 -16.0
Ayo Dosunmu DNP - Inactive
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 25:59 6 1 0 2 0 2 1 2-10 20.0 2-9 22.2 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Joe Ingles 3:45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jaden McDaniels DNP - Inactive
Julian Phillips 5:44 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Naz Reid 24:24 8 4 1 2 0 3 1 3-15 20.0 0-7 0.0 2-3 66.7 -22.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DET @ MIN
Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** DET 109 - MIN 87 (Winner: DET ✗) **Prediction:** DET 112 - MIN 112 Score error: 3/25 | Total: pred 224, actual 196 (-28) **Standout Players:** Julius Randle (MIN): 11p actual vs 21.9p pred (+10.9) Jalen Duren (DET): 10p actual vs 24.4p pred (+14.4) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE MIN -135 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE MIN -138 — LOST ✓ SPREAD DET 2.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET 2.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: DET @ MIN
Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** DET 112 - MIN 112 (MIN by 0, total 224) **Confidence:** 73% **DET** 53-20 (#1) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 113.9 | Def: 106.3 | Rest: 1d rest **MIN** 45-28 (#5) | Net: 3.7 | Off: 114.5 | Def: 110.8 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 102.7 **Injuries:** DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Wendell Moore Jr. (Out), Marcus Sasser (Available), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -7.9 pts) MIN: Anthony Edwards (Out) (impact: -6.0 pts) **Key Players:** DET: Jalen Duren 24.4p/13.0r/2.2a | Tobias Harris 15.1p/6.9r/3.7a | Daniss Jenkins 13.7p/2.8r/6.2a MIN: Julius Randle 21.9p/7.8r/4.9a | Ayo Dosunmu 18.7p/4.9r/4.0a | Jaden McDaniels 17.0p/5.1r/2.8a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE MIN -135 (strong, EV $0.269/dollar) MONEYLINE MIN -138 (moderate, EV $0.257/dollar) SPREAD DET 2.5 (slight, EV $0.098/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred