Chicago Bulls 124 @ 125 Memphis Grizzlies

March 28, 2026 | FedExForum | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

CHI MEM Total
Predicted 116 110 226
Actual 124 125 249
Diff -8 -15 -23
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Rob Dillingham Pred: 8/1/2 | Actual: 8/2/2
Walter Clayton Jr. Pred: 8/2/4 | Actual: 7/3/6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper Pred: 15/5/1 | Actual: 12/4/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Collin Sexton Pred: 13pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 12)

Chicago Bulls

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Jones SG 29:20 19 9 6 2 0 4 2 8-15 53.3 1-4 25.0 2-4 50.0 3.0
Isaac Okoro SF 29:42 7 4 1 0 3 2 4 3-7 42.9 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Josh Giddey PG 34:52 18 13 10 2 3 5 2 6-11 54.5 1-3 33.3 5-5 100.0 -15.0
Matas Buzelis PF 38:32 29 10 3 1 3 4 3 10-21 47.6 3-10 30.0 6-7 85.7 14.0
Leonard Miller C 16:20 5 4 0 1 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 -1.0
Zach Collins DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham 15:26 8 2 2 0 0 5 3 3-5 60.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Noa Essengue DNP - Inactive
Jaden Ivey DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura DNP - Inactive
Mac McClung DNP - Inactive
Lachlan Olbrich 22:27 8 7 2 0 1 1 3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 4-8 50.0 -4.0
Nick Richards DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Sexton 30:22 26 1 2 2 0 2 2 6-14 42.9 3-6 50.0 11-13 84.6 4.0
Anfernee Simons DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Smith DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams 22:58 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 2-5 40.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Guerschon Yabusele DNP - Coach's Decision

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cedric Coward SG 24:13 24 9 4 4 0 3 2 10-19 52.6 2-6 33.3 2-3 66.7 13.0
Rayan Rupert SF 30:26 14 4 2 2 0 0 6 6-10 60.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 6.0
Javon Small PG 15:28 6 2 4 3 0 0 4 2-5 40.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 4.0
GG Jackson PF 21:14 10 4 3 0 0 2 1 3-14 21.4 0-4 0.0 4-4 100.0 18.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper C 15:28 12 4 1 1 0 1 3 5-8 62.5 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 4.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Inactive
Walter Clayton Jr. 29:53 7 3 6 2 0 5 2 3-9 33.3 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 1.0
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Taylor Hendricks DNP - Inactive
Ty Jerome DNP - Inactive
Jahmai Mashack 29:53 17 2 2 1 0 2 2 8-12 66.7 0-1 0.0 1-1 100.0 1.0
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Wells DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CHI @ MEM
Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** CHI 124 - MEM 125 (Winner: MEM ✗) **Prediction:** CHI 116 - MEM 110 Score error: 8/15 | Total: pred 226, actual 249 (+23) **Standout Players:** Collin Sexton (CHI): 26p actual vs 13.4p pred (-12.6) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 244.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 245.5 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHI -174 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHI -175 — LOST ✗ SPREAD CHI -3.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD CHI -3.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: CHI @ MEM
Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** CHI 116 - MEM 110 (CHI by 6, total 226) **Confidence:** 83% **CHI** 29-43 (#12) | Net: -4.3 | Off: 111.1 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: B2B **MEM** 24-48 (#12) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 114.0 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 104.2 **Injuries:** CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Available), Anfernee Simons (Out), Guerschon Yabusele (Available) (impact: -4.0 pts) MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Cedric Coward (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Javon Small (Available), Cam Spencer (Day-To-Day), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** CHI: Matas Buzelis 21.8p/6.9r/1.3a | Tre Jones 16.1p/4.0r/5.9a | Josh Giddey 15.8p/8.1r/12.2a MEM: Ty Jerome 17.9p/2.3r/5.4a | Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14.9p/5.0r/1.1a | GG Jackson 14.0p/4.3r/1.1a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 244.5 (strong, EV $0.523/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 245.5 (strong, EV $0.464/dollar) MONEYLINE CHI -174 (strong, EV $0.313/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred