SAC @ ATL - NBA Local

Grade: A Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

	SAC	ATL	Total
Predicted	104	123	227
Actual	113	123	236
Diff	-9	0	-9

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Daeqwon Plowden Pred: 14/3/1 | Actual: 14/3/0

Maxime Raynaud Pred: 18/9/2 | Actual: 18/10/0

Zaccharie Risacher Pred: 11/3/1 | Actual: 13/2/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Devin Carter Pred: 14pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 11)

Sacramento Kings

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Devin Carter	SG	17:43	2	2	1	0	0	2	1	1-4	25.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
DeMar DeRozan	SF	30:00	22	4	3	0	0	3	2	9-18	50.0	1-2	50.0	3-3	100.0	-7.0
Malik Monk	PG	27:24	10	2	7	1	0	1	3	5-11	45.5	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	-14.0
Precious Achiuwa	PF	20:11	16	6	2	2	0	1	1	8-11	72.7	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-1.0
Maxime Raynaud	C	30:18	18	10	0	1	0	1	1	5-8	62.5	2-2	100.0	6-8	75.0	-21.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Dylan Cardwell		18:59	3	7	4	1	0	1	3	1-4	25.0	0-0	0.0	1-1	100.0	-6.0
Nique Clifford		23:24	3	4	5	0	1	2	0	1-11	9.1	1-6	16.7	0-0	0.0	-10.0
Drew Eubanks	DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter	DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine	DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott	DNP - Coach's Decision
Keegan Murray	DNP - Inactive
Daeqwon Plowden		28:27	14	3	0	1	0	2	5	5-9	55.6	4-8	50.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Domantas Sabonis	DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens	DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook	DNP - Inactive

Atlanta Hawks

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	SG	36:09	27	5	8	4	0	2	1	7-14	50.0	4-9	44.4	9-9	100.0	25.0
Jalen Johnson	SF	36:59	26	5	10	1	0	4	0	11-21	52.4	4-11	36.4	0-0	0.0	25.0
CJ McCollum	PG	30:06	22	4	5	1	0	1	1	9-17	52.9	2-7	28.6	2-4	50.0	1.0
Mouhamed Gueye	PF	31:36	10	7	2	0	0	0	3	4-8	50.0	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	21.0
Jock Landale	C	34:15	19	13	4	0	2	1	4	7-11	63.6	2-3	66.7	3-5	60.0	25.0
Dyson Daniels	DNP - Inactive
RayJ Dennis	DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert	DNP - Inactive
Buddy Hield	DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan	DNP - Coach's Decision
Corey Kispert		15:45	4	1	0	1	0	2	1	2-6	33.3	0-3	0.0	0-0	0.0	-13.0
Christian Koloko		11:00	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-15.0
Jonathan Kuminga	DNP - Inactive
Asa Newell	DNP - Coach's Decision
Onyeka Okongwu	DNP - Inactive
Zaccharie Risacher		19:08	13	2	0	0	0	0	1	4-7	57.1	2-4	50.0	3-4	75.0	-11.0
Gabe Vincent		25:00	2	3	3	2	0	3	1	1-3	33.3	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Keaton Wallace	DNP - Coach's Decision

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: SAC @ ATL

Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM

**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close.
**Result:** SAC 113 - ATL 123 (Winner: ATL ✓)
**Prediction:** SAC 104 - ATL 123
Score error: 9/0 | Total: pred 227, actual 236 (+9)

**Standout Players:**
  Devin Carter (SAC): 2p actual vs 13.8p pred (+11.8)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 236.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 236.5 — WON
  ✗ SPREAD ATL -14.5 — LOST
  ✗ SPREAD ATL -15.0 — LOST
  ✓ MONEYLINE ATL -1000 — WON

General Slate Analysis: SAC @ ATL

Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM

**Prediction:** SAC 104 - ATL 123 (ATL by 18, total 227)
**Confidence:** 96%

**SAC** 19-55 (#15) | Net: -10.1 | Off: 108.6 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest
**ATL** 41-32 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 112.9 | Def: 111.1 | Rest: B2B
Projected pace: 103.1

**Injuries:**
  SAC: Precious Achiuwa (Available), Nique Clifford (Out), Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Day-To-Day), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts)
  ATL: Jalen Johnson (Available) (impact: 0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  SAC: Maxime Raynaud 18.5p/9.0r/1.7a | DeMar DeRozan 16.7p/3.1r/5.6a | Malik Monk 15.9p/2.1r/5.5a
  ATL: Jalen Johnson 24.0p/9.5r/7.9a | CJ McCollum 18.4p/2.5r/3.6a | Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17.5p/3.4r/3.7a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 236.5 (strong, EV $0.433/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 236.5 (strong, EV $0.408/dollar)
  SPREAD ATL -14.5 (slight, EV $0.131/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Sacramento Kings 113 @ 123 Atlanta Hawks