Philadelphia 76ers 118 @ 114 Charlotte Hornets

March 28, 2026 | Spectrum Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

PHI CHA Total
Predicted 108 123 231
Actual 118 114 232
Diff -10 +9 -1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Quentin Grimes Pred: 22pts | Actual: 8pts (off by 14)

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
VJ Edgecombe SG 30:44 13 5 3 0 0 1 4 5-11 45.5 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Paul George SF 36:22 26 13 2 4 1 3 5 9-19 47.4 4-11 36.4 4-5 80.0 -5.0
Tyrese Maxey PG 43:00 26 7 8 1 1 3 2 10-18 55.6 3-6 50.0 3-4 75.0 13.0
Dominick Barlow PF 15:24 3 2 0 0 0 0 4 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -16.0
Joel Embiid C 35:48 29 6 2 0 2 0 0 8-19 42.1 3-6 50.0 10-13 76.9 5.0
MarJon Beauchamp DNP - Coach's Decision
Adem Bona 5:52 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond 6:20 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Justin Edwards 7:58 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Quentin Grimes 28:32 8 1 3 1 0 1 3 2-5 40.0 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 13.0
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Kelly Oubre Jr. 27:40 9 5 0 1 0 1 3 3-5 60.0 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 -1.0
Jabari Walker DNP - Coach's Decision
Trendon Watford DNP - Coach's Decision

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 34:19 29 8 0 0 0 0 4 8-17 47.1 5-11 45.5 8-10 80.0 8.0
Kon Knueppel SF 36:13 11 11 2 0 0 2 0 3-14 21.4 3-10 30.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
LaMelo Ball PG 37:09 20 3 8 1 0 2 4 7-26 26.9 5-18 27.8 1-1 100.0 -7.0
Miles Bridges PF 29:52 11 6 1 0 0 0 2 4-9 44.4 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -16.0
Moussa Diabaté C 24:40 10 11 2 1 0 1 4 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 2-3 66.7 -7.0
Pat Connaughton DNP - Coach's Decision
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 10:09 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 6:15 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0-3 0.0 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 0.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 17:32 4 1 0 0 1 0 4 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Tre Mann DNP - Coach's Decision
Liam McNeeley DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman DNP - Coach's Decision
Coby White 18:41 16 4 2 1 0 0 1 6-11 54.5 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 -14.0
Grant Williams 25:07 9 8 0 0 0 2 3 2-5 40.0 2-4 50.0 3-6 50.0 5.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHI @ CHA
Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** PHI 118 - CHA 114 (Winner: PHI ✗) **Prediction:** PHI 108 - CHA 123 Score error: 10/9 | Total: pred 231, actual 232 (+1) **Standout Players:** Quentin Grimes (PHI): 8p actual vs 22.1p pred (+14.1) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD CHA -6.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD CHA -5.5 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHA -230 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHA -230 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: PHI @ CHA
Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** PHI 108 - CHA 123 (CHA by 15, total 231) **Confidence:** 96% **PHI** 40-33 (#7) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 112.4 | Def: 112.8 | Rest: 2d rest **CHA** 39-34 (#9) | Net: 4.6 | Off: 114.6 | Def: 110.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.7 **Injuries:** PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Available), Paul George (Out), Quentin Grimes (Available), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts) CHA: Pat Connaughton (Day-To-Day), Kon Knueppel (Available), Tidjane Salaün (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) **Key Players:** PHI: Joel Embiid 29.9p/8.1r/4.8a | Quentin Grimes 22.1p/4.1r/4.7a | VJ Edgecombe 21.7p/7.1r/6.2a CHA: LaMelo Ball 22.9p/5.2r/8.2a | Brandon Miller 19.2p/4.8r/3.2a | Coby White 19.1p/4.5r/4.9a **Value Bets:** SPREAD CHA -6.5 (strong, EV $0.474/dollar) SPREAD CHA -5.5 (strong, EV $0.468/dollar) MONEYLINE CHA -230 (strong, EV $0.372/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred