Washington Wizards 126 @ 131 Golden State Warriors

March 27, 2026 | Chase Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

WAS GSW Total
Predicted 107 121 228
Actual 126 131 257
Diff -19 -10 -29
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Will Richard Pred: 8/3/2 | Actual: 8/2/2
Bub Carrington Pred: 14/3/5 | Actual: 16/2/5
Jaden Hardy Pred: 13/2/1 | Actual: 14/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Gui Santos Pred: 13pts | Actual: 27pts (off by 14)

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Johnson SG 22:09 11 1 0 0 0 1 2 5-11 45.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Bilal Coulibaly SF 19:04 21 6 2 0 1 0 0 8-16 50.0 4-9 44.4 1-2 50.0 -7.0
Bub Carrington PG 25:48 16 2 5 0 0 3 2 6-10 60.0 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Alex Sarr C 22:32 8 9 3 0 1 1 6 3-10 30.0 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -8.0
Justin Champagnie 25:20 6 2 3 0 0 2 3 3-8 37.5 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Sharife Cooper 10:48 7 1 4 0 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 8.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Anthony Gill 24:58 14 1 3 2 1 1 0 7-9 77.8 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jaden Hardy 12:00 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 4-5 80.0 4-5 80.0 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Will Riley 29:11 22 5 5 2 0 1 4 8-12 66.7 3-5 60.0 3-3 100.0 6.0
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Tristan Vukcevic DNP - Coach's Decision
Jamir Watkins 6:08 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Will Richard SG 24:31 8 2 2 0 0 0 1 3-5 60.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Draymond Green SF 32:11 6 4 10 1 2 3 2 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 4.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 33:17 22 10 7 2 0 3 1 6-13 46.2 3-8 37.5 7-8 87.5 7.0
Gui Santos PF 33:21 27 4 4 0 0 1 2 8-12 66.7 3-5 60.0 8-9 88.9 5.0
Kristaps Porziņģis C 28:48 28 8 3 0 0 0 0 9-17 52.9 5-11 45.5 5-7 71.4 5.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer 27:18 12 2 2 0 0 0 1 4-13 30.8 4-10 40.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Stephen Curry DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry DNP - Inactive
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons 2:56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
De'Anthony Melton DNP - Inactive
Moses Moody DNP - Inactive
Gary Payton II 24:54 15 5 2 1 1 2 3 7-11 63.6 0-1 0.0 1-3 33.3 4.0
Quinten Post DNP - Inactive
Pat Spencer 24:52 13 5 2 1 0 2 2 5-9 55.6 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: WAS @ GSW
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** WAS 126 - GSW 131 (Winner: GSW ✓) **Prediction:** WAS 107 - GSW 121 Score error: 19/10 | Total: pred 228, actual 257 (+29) **Standout Players:** Gui Santos (GSW): 27p actual vs 12.7p pred (-14.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 231.5 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE GSW -850 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE GSW -900 — WON
General Slate Analysis: WAS @ GSW
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** WAS 107 - GSW 121 (GSW by 14, total 228) **Confidence:** 96% **WAS** 17-55 (#13) | Net: -10.7 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 119.0 | Rest: 1d rest **GSW** 35-38 (#10) | Net: 0.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), Tre Johnson (Day-To-Day), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Alex Sarr (Day-To-Day), Tristan Vukcevic (Out), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Seth Curry (Out), Al Horford (Out), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** WAS: Bilal Coulibaly 16.9p/5.8r/3.5a | Will Riley 14.9p/4.0r/2.9a | Bub Carrington 13.9p/3.2r/4.6a GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 20.1p/6.0r/2.6a | Brandin Podziemski 16.1p/5.3r/4.6a | De'Anthony Melton 15.7p/4.4r/3.0a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 231.5 (slight, EV $0.098/dollar) MONEYLINE GSW -850 (slight, EV $0.069/dollar) MONEYLINE GSW -900 (slight, EV $0.062/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred