Utah Jazz 129 @ 135 Denver Nuggets

March 27, 2026 | Ball Arena | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

UTA DEN Total
Predicted 109 135 243
Actual 129 135 264
Diff -20 0 -21
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Kyle Filipowski Pred: 13pts | Actual: 25pts (off by 12)
Brice Sensabaugh Pred: 25pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 11)
Peyton Watson Pred: 18pts | Actual: 7pts (off by 10)

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brice Sensabaugh SG 25:29 13 4 6 2 0 3 2 4-8 50.0 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Ace Bailey SF 27:29 15 7 1 0 0 2 5 7-14 50.0 1-7 14.3 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Elijah Harkless PG 41:12 11 4 2 2 2 1 3 4-16 25.0 2-9 22.2 1-1 100.0 -9.0
Cody Williams PF 30:20 24 0 7 2 0 1 3 9-14 64.3 0-0 0.0 6-7 85.7 -1.0
Kyle Filipowski C 24:49 25 8 5 0 0 1 3 11-17 64.7 1-6 16.7 2-4 50.0 15.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 30:13 16 8 2 1 2 0 0 8-10 80.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Oscar Tshiebwe 12:25 9 9 3 0 0 1 2 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 1.0

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 21:41 7 2 0 0 1 0 1 3-8 37.5 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Cameron Johnson SF 26:09 12 4 0 1 0 1 3 4-11 36.4 4-11 36.4 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Jamal Murray PG 39:22 31 6 14 0 0 1 1 9-18 50.0 5-10 50.0 8-8 100.0 8.0
Aaron Gordon PF 30:54 17 7 1 1 1 1 2 6-12 50.0 0-4 0.0 5-6 83.3 15.0
Nikola Jokić C 38:36 33 15 12 1 0 7 0 13-16 81.2 2-2 100.0 5-8 62.5 13.0
Bruce Brown 15:12 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28:20 21 0 0 1 0 0 2 5-12 41.7 5-12 41.7 6-7 85.7 25.0
DaRon Holmes II DNP - Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones 13:39 0 6 0 1 0 0 3 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Tyus Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones DNP - Inactive
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther 5:08 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jonas Valančiūnas DNP - Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson 20:58 7 5 4 0 2 4 4 2-10 20.0 1-2 50.0 2-3 66.7 -2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: UTA @ DEN
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** UTA 129 - DEN 135 (Winner: DEN ✓) **Prediction:** UTA 109 - DEN 135 Score error: 20/0 | Total: pred 243, actual 264 (+21) **Standout Players:** John Konchar (UTA): 16p actual vs 5.9p pred (-10.1) Peyton Watson (DEN): 7p actual vs 17.9p pred (+10.9) Brice Sensabaugh (UTA): 13p actual vs 24.7p pred (+11.7) Kyle Filipowski (UTA): 25p actual vs 12.8p pred (-12.2) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD DEN -18.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DEN -19.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 248.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 248.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: UTA @ DEN
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** UTA 109 - DEN 135 (DEN by 26, total 243) **Confidence:** 97% **UTA** 21-52 (#14) | Net: -7.4 | Off: 111.3 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest **DEN** 46-28 (#4) | Net: 4.3 | Off: 118.8 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.7 **Injuries:** UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out), Cody Williams (Available) (impact: -10.0 pts) DEN: Peyton Watson (Available) (impact: 0 pts) **Key Players:** UTA: Brice Sensabaugh 24.7p/4.1r/2.1a | Ace Bailey 22.1p/5.8r/2.4a | Cody Williams 14.6p/3.4r/2.7a DEN: Jamal Murray 35.0p/4.1r/8.0a | Nikola Jokić 25.9p/15.4r/10.9a | Peyton Watson 17.9p/3.8r/2.2a **Value Bets:** SPREAD DEN -18.5 (strong, EV $0.361/dollar) SPREAD DEN -19.5 (moderate, EV $0.357/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 248.5 (moderate, EV $0.228/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred