New Orleans Pelicans 106 @ 119 Toronto Raptors

March 27, 2026 | Scotiabank Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

NOP TOR Total
Predicted 110 118 228
Actual 106 119 225
Diff +4 -1 +3
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Micah Peavy Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 4/1/0
Jonathan Mogbo Pred: 2/2/0 | Actual: 0/1/1
RJ Barrett Pred: 19/5/3 | Actual: 18/6/4
A.J. Lawson Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/2/0
Alijah Martin Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 0/1/0

New Orleans Pelicans

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Herbert Jones SG 27:24 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 1-8 12.5 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Saddiq Bey SF 30:08 19 3 2 0 1 2 1 6-12 50.0 3-6 50.0 4-4 100.0 -9.0
Jeremiah Fears PG 27:34 10 4 3 0 1 1 3 3-12 25.0 1-5 20.0 3-4 75.0 -6.0
Zion Williamson PF 30:41 22 7 4 0 0 2 2 9-13 69.2 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 -7.0
Yves Missi C 18:48 7 2 1 0 1 1 1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Trey Alexander DNP - Inactive
Hunter Dickinson DNP - Inactive
Jordan Hawkins 21:27 5 1 3 1 0 0 1 2-8 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
DeAndre Jordan 19:07 8 7 0 0 1 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Kevon Looney DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković 16:42 4 6 0 0 1 2 1 2-4 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Bryce McGowens DNP - Inactive
Trey Murphy III DNP - Inactive
Dejounte Murray DNP - Inactive
Micah Peavy 2:13 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Jordan Poole 23:24 12 2 6 0 0 2 3 3-12 25.0 2-8 25.0 4-4 100.0 -15.0
Derik Queen 22:32 13 8 0 1 1 2 3 5-11 45.5 0-0 0.0 3-5 60.0 -6.0

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 31:11 18 6 4 0 0 2 5 7-14 50.0 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 26.0
Brandon Ingram SF 30:33 13 6 2 1 1 1 1 5-13 38.5 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 10.0
Ja'Kobe Walter PG 33:52 18 1 4 0 0 1 2 6-14 42.9 4-10 40.0 2-4 50.0 22.0
Scottie Barnes PF 36:29 23 6 12 2 3 4 3 10-14 71.4 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 16.0
Jakob Poeltl C 29:33 18 11 3 1 1 1 4 9-11 81.8 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Jamison Battle 4:03 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Gradey Dick 2:13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis DNP - Inactive
A.J. Lawson 5:19 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21:24 18 9 2 1 1 0 1 7-14 50.0 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 9.0
Alijah Martin 2:13 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Jonathan Mogbo 3:53 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Collin Murray-Boyles 12:11 9 2 0 0 1 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 2.0
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Jamal Shead 24:52 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 0-4 0.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Garrett Temple DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: NOP @ TOR
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: S** β€” Nailed it. **Result:** NOP 106 - TOR 119 (Winner: TOR βœ“) **Prediction:** NOP 110 - TOR 118 Score error: 4/1 | Total: pred 228, actual 225 (-3) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ MONEYLINE TOR -340 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE TOR -360 β€” WON
General Slate Analysis: NOP @ TOR
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** NOP 110 - TOR 118 (TOR by 9, total 228) **Confidence:** 93% **NOP** 25-49 (#11) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 111.6 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: B2B **TOR** 40-32 (#6) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 112.1 | Def: 110.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** NOP: Bryce McGowens (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Out), Brandon Ingram (Available), Jakob Poeltl (Available), Immanuel Quickley (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.9 pts) **Key Players:** NOP: Dejounte Murray 18.5p/4.3r/6.6a | Trey Murphy III 18.1p/5.8r/2.8a | Zion Williamson 16.1p/5.1r/2.6a TOR: Brandon Ingram 22.5p/5.6r/3.5a | RJ Barrett 19.0p/5.2r/2.8a | Immanuel Quickley 16.9p/3.4r/4.6a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE TOR -340 (strong, EV $0.206/dollar) MONEYLINE TOR -360 (moderate, EV $0.191/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 β€” off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred