Chicago Bulls 113 @ 131 Oklahoma City Thunder

March 27, 2026 | Paycom Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

CHI OKC Total
Predicted 104 124 229
Actual 113 131 244
Diff -9 -7 -15
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Alex Caruso Pred: 6/3/2 | Actual: 6/5/2
Guerschon Yabusele Pred: 8/5/1 | Actual: 6/4/1
Lachlan Olbrich Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 3/1/0
Isaiah Joe Pred: 13/2/1 | Actual: 15/3/1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Pred: 27/3/6 | Actual: 25/2/5
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Isaac Okoro Pred: 7pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 13)
Jared McCain Pred: 12pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)
Cason Wallace Pred: 10pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 11)

Chicago Bulls

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Jones SG 26:16 21 7 9 1 1 2 1 8-12 66.7 1-3 33.3 4-4 100.0 -13.0
Isaac Okoro SF 31:13 20 4 0 0 1 0 3 7-13 53.8 3-5 60.0 3-3 100.0 -14.0
Josh Giddey PG 32:53 5 7 11 0 0 5 1 1-11 9.1 0-8 0.0 3-4 75.0 -20.0
Matas Buzelis PF 34:22 15 9 0 0 1 1 2 6-13 46.2 1-7 14.3 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Guerschon Yabusele C 22:21 6 4 1 1 1 0 4 2-6 33.3 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Zach Collins DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham 16:19 2 0 0 1 0 1 4 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Noa Essengue DNP - Inactive
Jaden Ivey DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura DNP - Inactive
Mac McClung DNP - Inactive
Leonard Miller 25:38 15 7 0 1 0 3 3 6-17 35.3 2-7 28.6 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Lachlan Olbrich 2:46 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 4.0
Nick Richards DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Sexton 29:58 22 3 3 0 1 0 3 8-14 57.1 5-7 71.4 1-2 50.0 0.0
Anfernee Simons DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Smith DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams 18:13 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 1-8 12.5 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -12.0

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cason Wallace SG 30:40 21 5 2 3 1 1 1 8-11 72.7 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 21.0
Luguentz Dort SF 18:05 3 2 1 0 1 0 1 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 29:29 25 2 5 0 3 1 1 8-24 33.3 0-10 0.0 9-12 75.0 10.0
Jalen Williams PF 26:44 18 6 8 1 0 2 3 8-16 50.0 0-2 0.0 2-4 50.0 12.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 24:14 6 16 3 2 0 3 2 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 2-3 66.7 13.0
Brooks Barnhizer DNP - Inactive
Branden Carlson 2:46 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Alex Caruso 15:15 6 5 2 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 2-3 66.7 8.0
Chet Holmgren DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Joe 18:14 15 3 1 1 0 0 1 5-11 45.5 4-9 44.4 1-1 100.0 9.0
Jared McCain 12:52 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-4 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Ajay Mitchell 25:13 15 3 5 0 2 2 5 6-10 60.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 14.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić DNP - Inactive
Aaron Wiggins 11:01 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Kenrich Williams 4:15 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jaylin Williams 18:59 12 10 0 2 2 0 1 4-6 66.7 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CHI @ OKC
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: B** β€” Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** CHI 113 - OKC 131 (Winner: OKC βœ“) **Prediction:** CHI 104 - OKC 124 Score error: 9/7 | Total: pred 229, actual 244 (+15) **Standout Players:** Isaac Okoro (CHI): 20p actual vs 6.9p pred (-13.1) Josh Giddey (CHI): 5p actual vs 15.6p pred (+10.6) Cason Wallace (OKC): 21p actual vs 9.8p pred (-11.2) Jared McCain (OKC): 0p actual vs 11.5p pred (+11.5) **Value Bet Results:** βœ— TOTAL UNDER 239.5 β€” LOST βœ— TOTAL UNDER 239.5 β€” LOST
General Slate Analysis: CHI @ OKC
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** CHI 104 - OKC 124 (OKC by 20, total 229) **Confidence:** 96% **CHI** 29-43 (#12) | Net: -4.3 | Off: 111.1 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 1d rest **OKC** 57-16 (#1) | Net: 10.7 | Off: 115.9 | Def: 105.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.8 **Injuries:** CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Available), Anfernee Simons (Out), Guerschon Yabusele (Available) (impact: -4.0 pts) OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) **Key Players:** CHI: Collin Sexton 16.3p/2.3r/3.2a | Josh Giddey 15.6p/8.2r/11.3a | Matas Buzelis 15.3p/6.3r/1.8a OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 26.9p/3.1r/5.5a | Chet Holmgren 18.1p/10.6r/1.6a | Jalen Williams 14.7p/3.1r/4.1a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (strong, EV $0.456/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (strong, EV $0.456/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 β€” off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred