Houston Rockets 119 @ 109 Memphis Grizzlies

March 27, 2026 | FedExForum | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

HOU MEM Total
Predicted 116 103 219
Actual 119 109 228
Diff -3 -6 -9
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 2/1/0
GG Jackson Pred: 14/4/1 | Actual: 14/4/0
Clint Capela Pred: 3/5/1 | Actual: 2/5/0
Aaron Holiday Pred: 5/1/2 | Actual: 6/1/0
Reed Sheppard Pred: 14/3/4 | Actual: 15/5/5
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Olivier-Maxence Prosper Pred: 10pts | Actual: 31pts (off by 20)
Alperen Sengun Pred: 26pts | Actual: 14pts (off by 12)

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 39:30 18 8 3 2 1 2 2 7-15 46.7 1-2 50.0 3-3 100.0 3.0
Kevin Durant SF 34:37 25 6 10 1 0 3 0 8-14 57.1 3-7 42.9 6-7 85.7 8.0
Reed Sheppard PG 28:02 15 5 5 4 1 1 1 6-15 40.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 5.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 37:11 21 16 4 0 1 5 2 7-16 43.8 2-7 28.6 5-8 62.5 8.0
Alperen Sengun C 32:51 14 8 7 1 2 1 4 6-13 46.2 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -1.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 14:48 2 5 0 0 2 1 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Coach's Decision
JD Davison DNP - Inactive
Tari Eason 29:02 16 7 1 1 0 0 3 6-14 42.9 1-6 16.7 3-4 75.0 11.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 14:45 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 4.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie DNP - Coach's Decision
Jae'Sean Tate 9:14 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cedric Coward SG 25:20 10 4 2 1 0 0 1 4-7 57.1 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 7.0
GG Jackson SF 30:12 14 4 0 0 1 3 1 5-14 35.7 2-7 28.6 2-2 100.0 0.0
Javon Small PG 25:12 14 3 5 1 0 2 3 6-9 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 1.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper PF 28:43 31 7 2 2 0 0 2 12-15 80.0 4-5 80.0 3-3 100.0 -4.0
Taylor Hendricks C 29:54 5 7 1 2 0 2 1 2-11 18.2 0-5 0.0 1-2 50.0 -1.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Inactive
Walter Clayton Jr. 22:48 7 2 1 0 1 1 2 1-8 12.5 0-2 0.0 5-6 83.3 -11.0
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Ty Jerome DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Rayan Rupert DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer 28:52 11 3 10 3 1 1 0 4-7 57.1 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Jaylen Wells DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: HOU @ MEM
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** HOU 119 - MEM 109 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** HOU 116 - MEM 103 Score error: 3/6 | Total: pred 219, actual 228 (+9) **Standout Players:** Alperen Sengun (HOU): 14p actual vs 26.4p pred (+12.4) Olivier-Maxence Prosper (MEM): 31p actual vs 10.5p pred (-20.5) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 228.5 — WON ✗ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: HOU @ MEM
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** HOU 116 - MEM 103 (HOU by 14, total 219) **Confidence:** 95% **HOU** 43-29 (#6) | Net: 3.8 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest **MEM** 24-48 (#12) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 114.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.7 **Injuries:** HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Cedric Coward (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Javon Small (Available), Cam Spencer (Day-To-Day), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** HOU: Kevin Durant 29.3p/5.8r/4.8a | Alperen Sengun 26.4p/11.5r/6.5a | Amen Thompson 20.8p/8.7r/6.5a MEM: Ty Jerome 20.7p/2.9r/6.6a | GG Jackson 14.4p/4.4r/1.3a | Olivier-Maxence Prosper 10.5p/4.2r/0.9a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 228.5 (strong, EV $0.379/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 227.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred