Atlanta Hawks 102 @ 109 Boston Celtics

March 27, 2026 | TD Garden | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

ATL BOS Total
Predicted 107 116 223
Actual 102 109 211
Diff +5 +7 +12
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Zaccharie Risacher Pred: 6/3/1 | Actual: 6/2/0
Jordan Walsh Pred: 4/4/1 | Actual: 5/3/1
Gabe Vincent Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 3/0/1
Hugo González Pred: 4/4/0 | Actual: 3/2/0
Sam Hauser Pred: 9/5/1 | Actual: 10/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Payton Pritchard Pred: 17pts | Actual: 36pts (off by 19)
Jalen Johnson Pred: 17pts | Actual: 29pts (off by 11)

Atlanta Hawks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG 38:22 20 4 5 2 0 0 4 6-13 46.2 2-5 40.0 6-7 85.7 -8.0
Dyson Daniels SF 32:13 6 6 5 2 1 1 2 3-8 37.5 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
CJ McCollum PG 33:44 21 5 2 0 0 0 3 8-20 40.0 3-10 30.0 2-3 66.7 -2.0
Jalen Johnson PF 36:34 29 6 6 1 1 2 0 9-21 42.9 5-11 45.5 6-6 100.0 6.0
Onyeka Okongwu C 37:43 8 9 2 0 0 1 5 3-7 42.9 1-2 50.0 1-3 33.3 5.0
RayJ Dennis DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert DNP - Inactive
Mouhamed Gueye 10:16 3 1 0 1 1 0 1 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Buddy Hield DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan DNP - Coach's Decision
Corey Kispert 6:51 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Christian Koloko DNP - Coach's Decision
Jonathan Kuminga 18:03 3 2 2 0 1 0 1 0-5 0.0 0-2 0.0 3-4 75.0 -12.0
Jock Landale DNP - Inactive
Asa Newell DNP - Inactive
Zaccharie Risacher 13:46 6 2 0 0 0 0 3 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 -17.0
Gabe Vincent 12:26 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Keaton Wallace DNP - Coach's Decision

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Baylor Scheierman SG 28:08 3 6 2 0 0 1 2 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Sam Hauser SF 29:00 10 3 2 0 0 1 2 4-7 57.1 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Derrick White PG 34:13 10 4 5 0 0 3 5 3-13 23.1 0-4 0.0 4-5 80.0 -4.0
Jayson Tatum PF 36:36 26 12 5 0 0 2 1 8-24 33.3 2-8 25.0 8-10 80.0 1.0
Neemias Queta C 27:34 5 11 5 0 1 3 3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
Charles Bassey DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Brown DNP - Inactive
Luka Garza 15:03 11 4 2 0 0 0 2 4-5 80.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Hugo González 7:22 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Ron Harper Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Payton Pritchard 34:33 36 7 4 0 0 5 2 13-23 56.5 6-11 54.5 4-4 100.0 26.0
Max Shulga DNP - Coach's Decision
John Tonje DNP - Inactive
Nikola Vučević DNP - Inactive
Jordan Walsh 27:27 5 3 1 0 3 0 2 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Amari Williams DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: ATL @ BOS
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** ATL 102 - BOS 109 (Winner: BOS ✓) **Prediction:** ATL 107 - BOS 116 Score error: 5/7 | Total: pred 223, actual 211 (-12) **Standout Players:** Payton Pritchard (BOS): 36p actual vs 16.6p pred (-19.4) Jalen Johnson (ATL): 29p actual vs 17.1p pred (-11.9) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -200 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -218 — WON ✓ SPREAD BOS -4.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD BOS -5.0 — WON
General Slate Analysis: ATL @ BOS
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** ATL 107 - BOS 116 (BOS by 9, total 223) **Confidence:** 93% **ATL** 41-32 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 112.9 | Def: 111.1 | Rest: 1d rest **BOS** 48-24 (#2) | Net: 7.3 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.8 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.2 **Injuries:** ATL: Jalen Johnson (Available) (impact: 0 pts) BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** ATL: Jalen Johnson 17.1p/10.2r/7.2a | Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16.6p/2.2r/3.2a | CJ McCollum 14.4p/2.2r/3.7a BOS: Jaylen Brown 34.1p/6.8r/5.2a | Jayson Tatum 20.5p/9.5r/3.9a | Payton Pritchard 16.6p/3.5r/4.3a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE BOS -200 (strong, EV $0.401/dollar) MONEYLINE BOS -218 (strong, EV $0.362/dollar) SPREAD BOS -4.5 (moderate, EV $0.187/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred