Toronto Raptors 94 @ 119 Los Angeles Clippers

March 25, 2026 | Intuit Dome | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

TOR LAC Total
Predicted 115 119 235
Actual 94 119 213
Diff +21 0 +22
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Garrett Temple Pred: 1/0/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Kawhi Leonard Pred: 26/6/3 | Actual: 27/6/2
Jonathan Mogbo Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 4/1/1
Brandon Ingram Pred: 20/5/2 | Actual: 18/6/4
Collin Murray-Boyles Pred: 8/4/2 | Actual: 10/5/0

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 31:51 12 6 4 1 0 1 5 5-19 26.3 0-7 0.0 2-5 40.0 -23.0
Brandon Ingram SF 35:44 18 6 4 1 1 3 1 8-18 44.4 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Jamal Shead PG 31:27 8 0 4 2 1 2 1 3-9 33.3 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Scottie Barnes PF 30:41 9 8 12 2 1 1 2 4-11 36.4 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 -7.0
Jakob Poeltl C 21:32 10 6 1 1 0 1 3 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -11.0
Jamison Battle 10:58 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 7.0
Gradey Dick 3:45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-4 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3:45 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
A.J. Lawson DNP - Inactive
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15:08 13 7 0 0 0 1 0 5-7 71.4 3-5 60.0 0-1 0.0 -8.0
Alijah Martin DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Mogbo 3:45 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Collin Murray-Boyles 23:44 10 5 0 1 1 2 3 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -23.0
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Garrett Temple 3:45 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Ja'Kobe Walter 15:04 5 1 0 0 0 0 4 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -17.0

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 28:28 2 7 0 0 0 1 0 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 30:20 27 6 2 0 1 3 1 9-19 47.4 2-6 33.3 7-8 87.5 14.0
Darius Garland PG 30:09 24 4 6 1 1 3 2 9-16 56.2 5-9 55.6 1-2 50.0 12.0
John Collins PF 22:17 0 5 0 1 0 1 2 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Brook Lopez C 25:16 14 5 0 2 5 1 2 5-10 50.0 3-6 50.0 1-1 100.0 10.0
Nicolas Batum 14:34 9 2 1 0 1 0 1 3-4 75.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie 3:45 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Kris Dunn 24:21 0 5 4 2 1 1 2 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 20.0
Isaiah Jackson 22:44 12 6 3 1 2 0 1 6-6 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 27:01 23 4 6 0 1 0 1 7-14 50.0 1-3 33.3 8-11 72.7 21.0
Jordan Miller DNP - Inactive
Kobe Sanders 7:19 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 5.0
TyTy Washington Jr. DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ LAC
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** TOR 115 - LAC 119 (LAC by 4, total 235) **Confidence:** 84% **TOR** 32-22 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.9 | Rest: 1d rest **LAC** 25-27 (#10) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 113.4 | Def: 113.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.0 **Injuries:** TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Day-To-Day), Brandon Ingram (Day-To-Day), Jakob Poeltl (Day-To-Day), Immanuel Quickley (Day-To-Day) (impact: -2.2 pts) LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out), Kawhi Leonard (Day-To-Day), Jordan Miller (Day-To-Day) (impact: -2.3 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: Scottie Barnes 18.8p/6.5r/6.3a | RJ Barrett 18.7p/4.4r/3.0a | Brandon Ingram 17.2p/4.6r/2.1a LAC: Kawhi Leonard 23.1p/5.3r/2.6a | Darius Garland 22.4p/2.3r/8.2a | Bennedict Mathurin 20.8p/4.5r/2.6a **Value Bets:** TOTAL OVER 225.5 (strong, EV $0.408/dollar) TOTAL OVER 226.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) MONEYLINE LAC -178 (strong, EV $0.306/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred