Brooklyn Nets 106 @ 109 Golden State Warriors

March 25, 2026 | Chase Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

BKN GSW Total
Predicted 108 116 223
Actual 106 109 215
Diff +2 +7 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Kristaps Porziņģis Pred: 16/6/3 | Actual: 17/5/2
Draymond Green Pred: 8/6/5 | Actual: 7/5/3
Josh Minott Pred: 10/3/1 | Actual: 8/2/3
E.J. Liddell Pred: 3/2/1 | Actual: 0/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Gui Santos Pred: 7pts | Actual: 31pts (off by 24)
Ziaire Williams Pred: 8pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 10)
Brandin Podziemski Pred: 11pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 10)

Brooklyn Nets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ben Saraf SG 31:42 14 4 7 2 0 4 2 5-9 55.6 2-3 66.7 2-4 50.0 -9.0
Terance Mann SF 23:01 4 5 1 2 0 0 3 2-7 28.6 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Drake Powell PG 33:57 10 2 0 2 0 0 1 4-10 40.0 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Ziaire Williams PF 23:32 19 1 2 6 0 3 3 6-11 54.5 1-2 50.0 6-7 85.7 6.0
Nic Claxton C 20:23 8 4 2 1 1 3 4 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
Ochai Agbaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Noah Clowney DNP - Inactive
Egor Dëmin DNP - Inactive
Tyson Etienne 16:41 5 1 3 1 0 0 2 2-6 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 8.0
Chaney Johnson 18:33 11 1 3 1 0 1 6 5-8 62.5 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -2.0
E.J. Liddell 8:09 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Josh Minott 22:36 8 2 3 2 1 5 4 3-5 60.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Michael Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Day'Ron Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Nolan Traore DNP - Inactive
Jalen Wilson 23:24 15 3 2 0 0 1 2 4-9 44.4 1-3 33.3 6-8 75.0 -9.0
Danny Wolf DNP - Inactive

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
De'Anthony Melton SG 27:32 14 9 3 4 0 4 1 5-12 41.7 1-5 20.0 3-4 75.0 16.0
Gui Santos SF 34:54 31 3 1 2 1 5 1 11-16 68.8 4-6 66.7 5-8 62.5 -6.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 35:06 22 6 5 0 0 3 3 6-11 54.5 2-4 50.0 8-8 100.0 19.0
Draymond Green PF 33:35 7 5 3 2 1 3 4 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 2-4 50.0 11.0
Kristaps Porziņģis C 27:02 17 5 2 0 0 6 4 4-9 44.4 0-2 0.0 9-10 90.0 11.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer 15:22 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0-4 0.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Stephen Curry DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry DNP - Inactive
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons DNP - Inactive
Moses Moody DNP - Coach's Decision
Gary Payton II 24:09 10 7 2 1 0 0 3 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Quinten Post DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Richard 19:43 3 2 0 1 1 1 3 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Pat Spencer 15:14 4 3 3 1 0 2 1 2-5 40.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: BKN @ GSW
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** BKN 99 - GSW 114 (GSW by 15, total 212) **Confidence:** 96% **BKN** 15-37 (#13) | Net: -7.3 | Off: 107.7 | Def: 115.0 | Rest: 1d rest **GSW** 29-25 (#8) | Net: 2.0 | Off: 112.2 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.9 **Injuries:** BKN: Noah Clowney (Out), Egor Dëmin (Out), Michael Porter Jr. (Out), Day'Ron Sharpe (Out), Nolan Traore (Out), Danny Wolf (Out) (impact: -9.3 pts) GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Seth Curry (Out), Al Horford (Out), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** BKN: Nic Claxton 13.3p/8.5r/2.9a | Josh Minott 12.3p/3.6r/1.2a | Ben Saraf 11.1p/2.2r/4.3a GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 17.6p/5.8r/3.1a | De'Anthony Melton 15.4p/3.9r/2.5a | Brandin Podziemski 12.8p/4.4r/3.9a **Value Bets:** SPREAD GSW -11.5 (slight, EV $0.155/dollar) SPREAD GSW -11.5 (slight, EV $0.155/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 215.5 (slight, EV $0.132/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred