Dallas Mavericks 135 @ 142 Denver Nuggets

March 25, 2026 | Ball Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

DAL DEN Total
Predicted 119 130 248
Actual 135 142 277
Diff -16 -12 -29
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Max Christie Pred: 10/2/2 | Actual: 9/1/2
Naji Marshall Pred: 19/5/4 | Actual: 22/4/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jamal Murray Pred: 25pts | Actual: 53pts (off by 28)
Tim Hardaway Jr. Pred: 15pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 11)

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 31:46 9 1 2 0 0 1 0 3-5 60.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Cooper Flagg SF 35:49 26 8 7 2 1 0 1 10-18 55.6 1-4 25.0 5-6 83.3 -6.0
Naji Marshall PG 29:54 22 4 3 0 0 1 2 7-17 41.2 1-6 16.7 7-8 87.5 -7.0
P.J. Washington PF 31:12 19 15 1 0 1 0 6 8-15 53.3 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Dwight Powell C 16:20 7 4 0 1 1 0 3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 5-7 71.4 -5.0
Marvin Bagley III 17:24 7 3 3 0 0 0 3 3-8 37.5 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Daniel Gafford DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Khris Middleton 17:36 11 3 5 0 0 1 1 4-8 50.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Ryan Nembhard 12:52 4 0 4 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Klay Thompson 10:44 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Brandon Williams 19:19 11 2 6 0 0 1 4 3-6 50.0 0-2 0.0 5-7 71.4 -1.0

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 25:07 11 3 4 0 0 2 6 4-8 50.0 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 9.0
Cameron Johnson SF 29:26 12 1 3 0 1 1 3 5-8 62.5 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Jamal Murray PG 41:16 53 6 4 0 0 4 2 19-28 67.9 9-14 64.3 6-6 100.0 10.0
Spencer Jones PF 20:20 4 2 0 0 0 0 4 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-4 50.0 -8.0
Nikola Jokić C 37:49 23 21 19 1 0 1 5 8-19 42.1 1-5 20.0 6-6 100.0 10.0
Bruce Brown 19:59 6 2 1 0 0 0 4 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 -9.0
Aaron Gordon DNP - Inactive
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26:56 4 1 2 0 0 1 1 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 15.0
DaRon Holmes II DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther 15:48 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 3-7 42.9 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jonas Valančiūnas DNP - Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson 23:18 21 4 3 0 0 0 2 7-10 70.0 2-3 66.7 5-6 83.3 3.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: DAL @ DEN
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** DAL 115 - DEN 129 (DEN by 14, total 243) **Confidence:** 96% **DAL** 19-33 (#12) | Net: -2.9 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 111.2 | Rest: 1d rest **DEN** 34-20 (#3) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 119.0 | Def: 115.1 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 102.2 **Injuries:** DAL: Daniel Gafford (Day-To-Day), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out), Brandon Williams (Out) (impact: -3.4 pts) DEN: Peyton Watson (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** DAL: Cooper Flagg 24.8p/7.2r/6.0a | Naji Marshall 21.0p/5.5r/4.8a | P.J. Washington 16.2p/6.7r/1.5a DEN: Nikola Jokić 28.2p/14.4r/11.7a | Jamal Murray 24.0p/4.0r/8.1a | Aaron Gordon 18.8p/5.8r/2.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DEN -800 (slight, EV $0.074/dollar) MONEYLINE DEN -800 (slight, EV $0.074/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred