Houston Rockets 108 @ 110 Minnesota Timberwolves

March 25, 2026 | Target Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

HOU MIN Total
Predicted 115 119 234
Actual 108 110 218
Diff +7 +9 +16
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Aaron Holiday Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 3/2/1
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 3/1/0 | Actual: 5/1/0
Josh Okogie Pred: 3/2/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Dorian Finney-Smith Pred: 2/3/1 | Actual: 0/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jaden McDaniels Pred: 14pts | Actual: 25pts (off by 11)

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 45:04 11 9 10 0 2 2 4 4-8 50.0 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 -3.0
Kevin Durant SF 43:07 30 3 8 2 1 6 1 9-22 40.9 2-5 40.0 10-12 83.3 5.0
Reed Sheppard PG 27:48 10 8 3 2 0 2 0 3-13 23.1 2-10 20.0 2-2 100.0 5.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 47:36 16 12 1 1 1 3 2 7-15 46.7 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Alperen Sengun C 42:50 30 6 3 0 4 1 5 12-22 54.5 0-2 0.0 6-6 100.0 -2.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 9:51 0 4 0 0 2 1 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Coach's Decision
JD Davison DNP - Inactive
Tari Eason 20:57 3 8 0 1 0 1 2 1-7 14.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Dorian Finney-Smith 6:19 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 12:05 3 2 1 0 0 3 1 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 0:56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Jae'Sean Tate 8:25 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donte DiVincenzo SG 36:19 17 3 2 2 0 2 3 6-15 40.0 5-12 41.7 0-0 0.0 3.0
Jaden McDaniels SF 36:59 25 2 0 2 2 1 3 10-17 58.8 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 -6.0
Julius Randle PF 42:08 24 6 6 2 0 5 3 11-27 40.7 0-4 0.0 2-4 50.0 7.0
Rudy Gobert C 28:03 14 14 1 1 5 1 6 7-13 53.8 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Kyle Anderson 30:00 3 5 3 1 1 1 1 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 4.0
Joan Beringer DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Clark DNP - Coach's Decision
Ayo Dosunmu DNP - Inactive
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 29:35 8 0 8 0 1 1 0 3-11 27.3 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Phillips DNP - Coach's Decision
Naz Reid 30:52 14 13 1 2 2 3 5 5-13 38.5 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 -8.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2:20 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: HOU @ MIN
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** HOU 113 - MIN 116 (MIN by 3, total 229) **Confidence:** 82% **HOU** 32-19 (#4) | Net: 5.1 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.3 | Rest: 1d rest **MIN** 33-22 (#6) | Net: 4.4 | Off: 115.4 | Def: 111.0 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.1 **Injuries:** HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) MIN: Ayo Dosunmu (Day-To-Day), Anthony Edwards (Out) (impact: -6.5 pts) **Key Players:** HOU: Kevin Durant 30.8p/5.2r/5.0a | Alperen Sengun 22.6p/11.2r/5.2a | Amen Thompson 18.4p/8.1r/4.5a MIN: Julius Randle 28.2p/6.8r/4.0a | Jaden McDaniels 15.8p/5.6r/3.4a | Naz Reid 15.8p/6.9r/2.4a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE MIN 106 (strong, EV $0.700/dollar) MONEYLINE MIN 102 (strong, EV $0.666/dollar) SPREAD MIN 1.5 (moderate, EV $0.212/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred