Washington Wizards 133 @ 110 Utah Jazz

March 25, 2026 | Delta Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

WAS UTA Total
Predicted 120 129 249
Actual 133 110 243
Diff -13 +19 +6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Bub Carrington Pred: 13/2/4 | Actual: 12/2/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Sharife Cooper Pred: 7pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 10)

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Will Riley SG 22:15 19 10 5 0 0 1 0 6-14 42.9 1-4 25.0 6-8 75.0 19.0
Bub Carrington PG 24:25 12 2 3 0 0 0 3 4-7 57.1 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 22.0
Bilal Coulibaly PF 18:57 11 2 3 3 0 2 1 4-9 44.4 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 16.0
Justin Champagnie DNP - Coach's Decision
Sharife Cooper 25:01 17 4 6 2 0 3 4 7-12 58.3 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 0.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Anthony Gill 22:18 8 6 5 0 0 2 2 4-5 80.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 18.0
Jaden Hardy 27:27 21 2 0 0 0 3 5 8-18 44.4 5-13 38.5 0-2 0.0 4.0
Tre Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr DNP - Coach's Decision
Tristan Vukcevic DNP - Inactive
Jamir Watkins 29:16 8 6 2 3 0 3 3 3-7 42.9 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 9.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Elijah Harkless SG 29:30 10 3 6 2 0 2 3 4-12 33.3 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -18.0
John Konchar SF 38:27 8 14 5 1 3 0 4 4-9 44.4 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -25.0
Ace Bailey PF 28:55 15 5 3 2 2 1 3 7-19 36.8 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Cody Williams C 37:19 24 4 1 2 1 4 1 11-20 55.0 0-3 0.0 2-4 50.0 -18.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Kyle Filipowski DNP - Inactive
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Brice Sensabaugh DNP - Coach's Decision
Oscar Tshiebwe 16:53 7 8 4 0 0 4 0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 -17.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: WAS @ UTA
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** WAS 112 - UTA 120 (UTA by 8, total 231) **Confidence:** 87% **WAS** 14-38 (#14) | Net: -10.3 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 118.3 | Rest: 2d rest **UTA** 17-37 (#13) | Net: -7.7 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 119.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 104.0 **Injuries:** WAS: Bilal Coulibaly (Day-To-Day), Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Day-To-Day), Tre Johnson (Out), D'Angelo Russell (Out), Alex Sarr (Out), Tristan Vukcevic (Day-To-Day), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Kyle Filipowski (Day-To-Day), Keyonte George (Day-To-Day), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out), Brice Sensabaugh (Out), Cody Williams (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** WAS: Bilal Coulibaly 18.8p/4.3r/3.3a | Bub Carrington 15.9p/3.1r/4.9a | Will Riley 15.0p/3.1r/2.9a UTA: Keyonte George 21.4p/2.4r/4.5a | Ace Bailey 21.3p/4.7r/2.2a | Cody Williams 16.0p/4.0r/3.3a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 240.5 (strong, EV $0.408/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 240.5 (strong, EV $0.408/dollar) MONEYLINE UTA -192 (strong, EV $0.323/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred