San Antonio Spurs 123 @ 98 Memphis Grizzlies

March 25, 2026 | FedExForum | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

SAS MEM Total
Predicted 122 110 232
Actual 123 98 221
Diff -1 +12 +11
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Lindy Waters III Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 3/1/1
Jordan McLaughlin Pred: 3/1/2 | Actual: 2/1/1
Carter Bryant Pred: 5/3/1 | Actual: 5/1/0
Javon Small Pred: 9/3/3 | Actual: 8/3/5
Harrison Barnes Pred: 13/4/2 | Actual: 11/2/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Cam Spencer Pred: 12pts | Actual: 1pts (off by 10)
GG Jackson Pred: 10pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 10)

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Stephon Castle SG 25:52 15 3 9 0 0 5 1 5-7 71.4 0-2 0.0 5-9 55.6 34.0
Julian Champagnie SF 25:32 13 8 2 1 1 1 1 4-10 40.0 3-8 37.5 2-2 100.0 28.0
Dylan Harper PG 22:55 10 5 6 0 1 1 1 4-8 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 18.0
Devin Vassell PF 26:28 19 7 4 1 0 0 0 7-10 70.0 4-6 66.7 1-2 50.0 38.0
Victor Wembanyama C 26:56 19 15 3 3 7 2 1 8-15 53.3 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 34.0
Harrison Barnes 21:58 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Bismack Biyombo 8:57 0 4 0 0 0 0 2 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Carter Bryant 15:27 5 1 0 1 0 0 3 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -11.0
De'Aaron Fox DNP - Inactive
Harrison Ingram DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson 22:27 15 7 3 0 0 1 3 7-16 43.8 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 9.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet DNP - Inactive
Jordan McLaughlin 15:15 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk 8:57 9 1 3 0 0 1 0 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 4-4 100.0 -8.0
Lindy Waters III 8:57 3 1 1 0 0 1 2 1-6 16.7 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -8.0

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Cedric Coward SG 26:45 12 1 4 0 0 0 1 5-10 50.0 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -11.0
GG Jackson SF 29:56 20 7 2 2 1 0 1 7-15 46.7 3-7 42.9 3-4 75.0 -18.0
Javon Small PG 30:20 8 3 5 1 0 3 1 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 3-4 75.0 -15.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper PF 25:15 17 5 0 0 0 1 3 6-10 60.0 3-7 42.9 2-3 66.7 -20.0
Taylor Hendricks C 27:44 2 8 0 0 0 2 3 1-7 14.3 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -33.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Inactive
Walter Clayton Jr. 21:41 10 2 6 0 1 2 1 3-8 37.5 2-4 50.0 2-4 50.0 -5.0
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Ty Jerome DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmai Mashack DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Rayan Rupert DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer 29:31 1 2 7 0 0 1 0 0-6 0.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -12.0
Jaylen Wells DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: SAS @ MEM
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** SAS 123 - MEM 103 (SAS by 19, total 226) **Confidence:** 96% **SAS** 36-16 (#2) | Net: 5.3 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.2 | Rest: 1d rest **MEM** 20-32 (#11) | Net: -2.0 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 112.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.4 **Injuries:** SAS: De'Aaron Fox (Out), David Jones Garcia (Out), Luke Kornet (Out) (impact: -3.7 pts) MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Ty Jerome (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Javon Small (Day-To-Day), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** SAS: Victor Wembanyama 29.2p/10.7r/3.1a | Stephon Castle 18.7p/6.6r/8.1a | Keldon Johnson 16.2p/4.7r/1.6a MEM: Cedric Coward 14.0p/6.6r/2.5a | Cam Spencer 13.9p/2.8r/6.2a | GG Jackson 12.5p/4.4r/1.3a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 234.5 (strong, EV $0.411/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 234.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) SPREAD SAS -16.5 (slight, EV $0.098/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred