Oklahoma City Thunder 109 @ 119 Boston Celtics

March 25, 2026 | TD Garden | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

OKC BOS Total
Predicted 115 111 225
Actual 109 119 228
Diff +6 -8 -3
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Hugo González Pred: 3/3/1 | Actual: 3/2/0
Jared McCain Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 6/1/0
Sam Hauser Pred: 6/4/1 | Actual: 9/5/0
Jaylin Williams Pred: 7/4/2 | Actual: 4/3/0

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Luguentz Dort SG 21:38 14 5 0 0 1 3 3 5-9 55.6 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jalen Williams SF 23:38 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 2-9 22.2 0-3 0.0 3-4 75.0 -5.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 36:57 33 2 8 2 0 2 3 10-12 83.3 3-4 75.0 10-12 83.3 1.0
Chet Holmgren PF 25:41 10 5 0 0 0 1 1 3-7 42.9 1-2 50.0 3-4 75.0 -5.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 22:17 6 5 2 3 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Brooks Barnhizer DNP - Inactive
Branden Carlson DNP - Coach's Decision
Alex Caruso 21:14 9 4 2 1 0 0 2 3-11 27.3 1-8 12.5 2-2 100.0 -12.0
Isaiah Joe 12:09 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Jared McCain 12:56 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 3-6 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Ajay Mitchell 25:26 8 3 2 0 1 1 4 4-9 44.4 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić DNP - Inactive
Cason Wallace 24:17 7 4 0 1 1 0 3 2-5 40.0 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Aaron Wiggins DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylin Williams 13:43 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 -5.0
Kenrich Williams DNP - Coach's Decision

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jaylen Brown SG 38:54 31 8 8 2 0 5 4 9-17 52.9 1-3 33.3 12-14 85.7 7.0
Sam Hauser SF 28:39 9 5 0 0 0 0 2 3-9 33.3 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 4.0
Derrick White PG 33:07 12 2 6 0 0 1 2 3-11 27.3 2-7 28.6 4-4 100.0 6.0
Jayson Tatum PF 35:25 19 12 7 3 1 5 2 5-12 41.7 3-6 50.0 6-6 100.0 2.0
Neemias Queta C 29:54 13 5 2 0 2 0 5 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 3.0
Charles Bassey DNP - Coach's Decision
Luka Garza 11:54 7 2 0 0 0 1 3 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 9.0
Hugo González 9:28 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Ron Harper Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Payton Pritchard 32:52 14 2 1 0 1 1 2 5-11 45.5 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 11.0
Baylor Scheierman 19:44 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 11.0
Max Shulga DNP - Coach's Decision
John Tonje DNP - Inactive
Nikola Vučević DNP - Inactive
Jordan Walsh DNP - Coach's Decision
Amari Williams DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: OKC @ BOS
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** OKC 117 - BOS 110 (OKC by 7, total 227) **Confidence:** 92% **OKC** 41-13 (#1) | Net: 11.6 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 105.1 | Rest: 1d rest **BOS** 34-19 (#3) | Net: 6.8 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 109.8 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 100.0 **Injuries:** OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 27.3p/4.0r/6.8a | Chet Holmgren 14.3p/9.2r/1.2a | Ajay Mitchell 12.2p/3.3r/4.1a BOS: Jaylen Brown 29.9p/6.2r/5.9a | Payton Pritchard 14.6p/3.5r/4.9a | Jayson Tatum 14.2p/7.2r/2.6a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE OKC -146 (strong, EV $0.547/dollar) MONEYLINE OKC -155 (strong, EV $0.510/dollar) TOTAL OVER 217.5 (strong, EV $0.396/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred