Chicago Bulls 137 @ 157 Philadelphia 76ers

March 25, 2026 | Xfinity Mobile Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

CHI PHI Total
Predicted 119 124 243
Actual 137 157 294
Diff -18 -33 -51
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Lachlan Olbrich Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 2/2/0
Collin Sexton Pred: 18/2/4 | Actual: 16/1/4
Kyle Lowry Pred: 1/1/1 | Actual: 3/0/0
Justin Edwards Pred: 10/2/2 | Actual: 12/0/1
VJ Edgecombe Pred: 20/8/5 | Actual: 22/6/6
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Smith Pred: 12pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)

Chicago Bulls

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Jones SG 27:31 15 4 7 0 0 1 1 4-9 44.4 0-2 0.0 7-8 87.5 -8.0
Matas Buzelis SF 29:55 18 8 2 0 1 3 4 6-15 40.0 4-10 40.0 2-2 100.0 -15.0
Josh Giddey PG 32:53 23 9 12 0 1 4 2 8-13 61.5 3-6 50.0 4-4 100.0 -15.0
Jalen Smith PF 6:03 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Nick Richards C 8:53 2 5 0 0 0 2 0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Zach Collins DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham 22:45 12 2 1 0 0 1 4 5-10 50.0 0-4 0.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Noa Essengue DNP - Inactive
Jaden Ivey DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura DNP - Inactive
Mac McClung DNP - Inactive
Leonard Miller 20:37 15 7 2 0 0 1 3 6-12 50.0 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 5.0
Isaac Okoro 23:17 13 2 1 1 0 0 2 5-10 50.0 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Lachlan Olbrich 6:07 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Collin Sexton 19:14 16 1 4 1 0 1 2 5-9 55.6 1-4 25.0 5-6 83.3 -29.0
Anfernee Simons DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams 20:20 10 3 1 1 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 1-3 33.3 1-4 25.0 -14.0
Guerschon Yabusele 22:24 11 4 0 0 0 0 2 3-8 37.5 2-5 40.0 3-3 100.0 -7.0

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Quentin Grimes SG 30:59 13 6 5 3 3 1 3 5-10 50.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 16.0
Paul George SF 26:20 28 6 4 4 1 0 2 11-22 50.0 6-13 46.2 0-0 0.0 14.0
VJ Edgecombe PG 29:36 22 6 6 1 0 1 1 7-9 77.8 4-5 80.0 4-5 80.0 32.0
Dominick Barlow PF 25:30 9 5 5 0 2 0 3 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 27.0
Joel Embiid C 28:06 35 6 7 0 1 3 2 12-17 70.6 3-3 100.0 8-9 88.9 33.0
MarJon Beauchamp 7:11 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 -14.0
Adem Bona 14:41 4 8 0 0 2 2 2 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond 5:13 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Justin Edwards 14:29 12 0 1 0 0 0 3 5-7 71.4 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 20.0
Kyle Lowry 5:13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Tyrese Maxey DNP - Inactive
Kelly Oubre Jr. DNP - Inactive
Jabari Walker 7:11 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Trendon Watford 15:19 4 2 1 0 0 0 3 2-7 28.6 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: CHI @ PHI
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** CHI 115 - PHI 118 (PHI by 3, total 233) **Confidence:** 83% **CHI** 24-30 (#11) | Net: -3.4 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 115.7 | Rest: 1d rest **PHI** 30-23 (#6) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 112.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.5 **Injuries:** CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Out), Anfernee Simons (Out), Guerschon Yabusele (Day-To-Day) (impact: -4.2 pts) PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Out), Paul George (Out), Quentin Grimes (Day-To-Day), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** CHI: Collin Sexton 20.5p/2.5r/4.4a | Josh Giddey 19.6p/9.1r/13.0a | Matas Buzelis 17.4p/7.4r/1.4a PHI: VJ Edgecombe 23.7p/8.7r/5.8a | Quentin Grimes 17.3p/3.5r/3.9a | Justin Edwards 12.3p/1.8r/1.9a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (moderate, EV $0.265/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (moderate, EV $0.239/dollar) MONEYLINE PHI -245 (moderate, EV $0.165/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred