Atlanta Hawks 130 @ 129 Detroit Pistons

March 25, 2026 | Little Caesars Arena | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

ATL DET Total
Predicted 109 118 227
Actual 130 129 259
Diff -21 -11 -32
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jonathan Kuminga Pred: 8/6/2 | Actual: 8/5/1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Pred: 22/3/3 | Actual: 21/4/3
Kevin Huerter Pred: 10/3/2 | Actual: 8/2/2
Javonte Green Pred: 6/2/0 | Actual: 7/3/2
Corey Kispert Pred: 7/2/2 | Actual: 5/4/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Tobias Harris Pred: 12pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 10)

Atlanta Hawks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG 40:20 21 4 3 0 0 1 1 9-18 50.0 3-10 30.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Dyson Daniels SF 43:10 16 13 4 2 1 4 3 8-14 57.1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
CJ McCollum PG 34:56 27 1 5 1 0 4 4 10-21 47.6 5-12 41.7 2-2 100.0 -16.0
Jalen Johnson PF 41:57 27 8 12 0 0 5 1 9-18 50.0 2-6 33.3 7-8 87.5 2.0
Onyeka Okongwu C 24:00 11 1 2 2 0 2 6 4-6 66.7 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
RayJ Dennis DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert DNP - Inactive
Mouhamed Gueye 0:55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Buddy Hield DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan DNP - Coach's Decision
Corey Kispert 11:33 5 4 2 0 0 1 0 1-5 20.0 1-4 25.0 2-4 50.0 5.0
Christian Koloko DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Kuminga 19:39 8 5 1 1 0 2 0 3-9 33.3 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 3.0
Jock Landale 28:05 5 10 2 0 0 1 2 2-5 40.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Asa Newell DNP - Inactive
Zaccharie Risacher 9:21 2 3 0 0 0 0 2 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Gabe Vincent 11:04 8 1 0 2 0 0 0 3-6 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Keaton Wallace DNP - Coach's Decision

Detroit Pistons

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Duncan Robinson SG 31:51 17 7 4 0 0 0 1 6-12 50.0 5-10 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ausar Thompson SF 37:04 18 4 5 4 1 1 5 9-11 81.8 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Daniss Jenkins PG 44:37 19 3 10 1 0 6 3 6-13 46.2 1-6 16.7 6-8 75.0 1.0
Tobias Harris PF 35:26 22 3 3 1 0 1 3 9-17 52.9 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
Jalen Duren C 42:03 26 14 3 0 2 4 1 9-15 60.0 0-0 0.0 8-9 88.9 14.0
Cade Cunningham DNP - Inactive
Javonte Green 15:00 7 3 2 1 0 0 1 3-8 37.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Ronald Holland II 12:29 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Kevin Huerter 20:21 8 2 2 2 0 1 2 4-9 44.4 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Bobi Klintman DNP - Coach's Decision
Chaz Lanier DNP - Coach's Decision
Caris LeVert 15:11 4 5 2 1 1 1 0 2-7 28.6 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Wendell Moore Jr. DNP - Inactive
Paul Reed 10:57 6 0 1 1 1 0 4 3-7 42.9 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Marcus Sasser DNP - Inactive
Tolu Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stewart DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: ATL @ DET
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** ATL 109 - DET 115 (DET by 6, total 224) **Confidence:** 85% **ATL** 26-29 (#9) | Net: -1.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 112.9 | Rest: 1d rest **DET** 39-13 (#1) | Net: 7.5 | Off: 113.3 | Def: 105.8 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.9 **Injuries:** ATL: Jalen Johnson (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.5 pts) DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Javonte Green (Day-To-Day), Wendell Moore Jr. (Out), Marcus Sasser (Day-To-Day), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -8.0 pts) **Key Players:** ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21.8p/2.9r/2.6a | CJ McCollum 20.0p/2.9r/4.0a | Jalen Johnson 17.4p/9.0r/7.1a DET: Jalen Duren 26.1p/12.7r/1.4a | Tobias Harris 13.7p/6.7r/2.9a | Duncan Robinson 13.1p/3.3r/2.6a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET -148 (strong, EV $0.426/dollar) MONEYLINE DET -154 (strong, EV $0.404/dollar) SPREAD DET -2.5 (slight, EV $0.145/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred