Denver Nuggets 125 @ 123 Phoenix Suns

March 24, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

DEN PHX Total
Predicted 116 111 227
Actual 125 123 248
Diff -9 -12 -21
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Cameron Johnson Pred: 15/4/2 | Actual: 14/3/2
Aaron Gordon Pred: 16/5/2 | Actual: 16/6/3
Julian Strawther Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 7/1/1
Khaman Maluach Pred: 3/3/0 | Actual: 6/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Devin Booker Pred: 32pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 10)

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 32:27 13 3 1 0 0 0 3 6-10 60.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 1.0
Cameron Johnson SF 32:40 14 3 2 1 1 0 5 4-9 44.4 2-7 28.6 4-4 100.0 -12.0
Jamal Murray PG 37:56 21 1 6 0 1 2 1 7-18 38.9 3-9 33.3 4-4 100.0 3.0
Aaron Gordon PF 26:13 16 6 3 0 0 2 4 5-9 55.6 1-1 100.0 5-10 50.0 -6.0
Nikola Jokić C 35:25 23 17 17 0 0 2 3 9-16 56.2 0-1 0.0 5-7 71.4 -5.0
Bruce Brown 22:38 9 9 3 1 0 2 4 4-7 57.1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22:48 18 3 2 0 0 0 1 6-12 50.0 4-8 50.0 2-3 66.7 3.0
DaRon Holmes II DNP - Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones 21:47 4 7 0 0 0 1 5 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Curtis Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther 8:04 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 2-2 100.0 12.0
Jonas Valančiūnas DNP - Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson DNP - Inactive

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 34:41 22 3 8 0 0 0 3 5-14 35.7 1-4 25.0 11-13 84.6 1.0
Jalen Green SF 29:06 21 6 6 0 0 2 2 6-13 46.2 3-6 50.0 6-8 75.0 9.0
Collin Gillespie PG 27:17 11 3 1 1 0 0 0 4-11 36.4 2-7 28.6 1-1 100.0 -1.0
Royce O'Neale PF 28:08 17 5 3 1 3 0 4 5-8 62.5 5-8 62.5 2-2 100.0 10.0
Oso Ighodaro C 33:41 15 6 1 1 0 0 4 6-7 85.7 0-0 0.0 3-7 42.9 -7.0
Grayson Allen 23:11 21 5 3 1 0 0 0 8-19 42.1 5-12 41.7 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Jamaree Bouyea 3:31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Koby Brea DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Brooks DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn DNP - Inactive
Rasheer Fleming 23:08 3 4 0 0 0 0 2 0-6 0.0 0-4 0.0 3-4 75.0 -12.0
Jordan Goodwin 26:24 7 8 2 2 0 1 3 3-8 37.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 10:50 6 1 0 0 2 0 2 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 5.0
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: DEN @ PHX
Mar 23, 2026 at 08:14 PM
**Prediction:** DEN 116 - PHX 111 (DEN by 4, total 227) **Confidence:** 90% **DEN** 34-20 (#3) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 119.0 | Def: 115.1 | Rest: 1d rest **PHX** 31-22 (#7) | Net: 2.2 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.5 **Injuries:** DEN: Peyton Watson (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) PHX: Grayson Allen (Out), Dillon Brooks (Day-To-Day), Amir Coffey (Out), Royce O'Neale (Out), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -5.6 pts) **Key Players:** DEN: Nikola Jokić 22.0p/13.6r/10.7a | Jamal Murray 21.6p/4.6r/6.7a | Christian Braun 16.6p/4.0r/3.2a PHX: Devin Booker 32.0p/3.7r/7.4a | Jalen Green 21.3p/4.1r/3.9a | Dillon Brooks 21.2p/3.2r/1.8a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DEN -205 (strong, EV $0.338/dollar) MONEYLINE DEN -218 (strong, EV $0.311/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (moderate, EV $0.265/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred