New Orleans Pelicans 116 @ 121 New York Knicks

March 24, 2026 | Madison Square Garden | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

NOP NYK Total
Predicted 107 122 229
Actual 116 121 237
Diff -9 +1 -8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Zion Williamson Pred: 22/5/2 | Actual: 22/4/2
Trey Murphy III Pred: 19/6/3 | Actual: 16/6/2
Saddiq Bey Pred: 20/5/4 | Actual: 18/4/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Dejounte Murray Pred: 20pts | Actual: 7pts (off by 12)
Jeremiah Fears Pred: 9pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 11)

New Orleans Pelicans

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Trey Murphy III SG 35:31 16 6 2 1 0 0 2 6-15 40.0 4-12 33.3 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Saddiq Bey SF 27:53 18 4 2 0 0 2 4 6-13 46.2 4-6 66.7 2-2 100.0 1.0
Dejounte Murray PG 28:02 7 5 12 1 0 1 3 2-12 16.7 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 0.0
Zion Williamson PF 33:56 22 4 2 1 1 1 3 8-10 80.0 0-0 0.0 6-8 75.0 15.0
Herbert Jones C 37:02 13 2 6 0 1 1 5 6-8 75.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Trey Alexander DNP - Inactive
Hunter Dickinson DNP - Inactive
Jeremiah Fears 19:58 21 1 3 2 0 2 0 9-12 75.0 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Jordan Hawkins DNP - Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković 22:33 12 3 1 0 0 0 1 5-6 83.3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Bryce McGowens DNP - Inactive
Yves Missi 16:38 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Micah Peavy DNP - Coach's Decision
Jordan Poole DNP - Coach's Decision
Derik Queen 18:26 5 5 3 0 1 0 1 2-8 25.0 0-3 0.0 1-1 100.0 -7.0

New York Knicks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Mikal Bridges SG 37:28 14 2 7 0 1 1 1 5-12 41.7 4-10 40.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
OG Anunoby SF 39:38 21 4 4 3 1 0 4 7-16 43.8 5-13 38.5 2-2 100.0 17.0
Jalen Brunson PG 38:41 32 1 7 0 0 2 1 11-19 57.9 2-4 50.0 8-9 88.9 16.0
Josh Hart PF 37:56 10 8 3 0 0 1 4 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 4-5 80.0 -14.0
Karl-Anthony Towns C 24:23 21 14 1 0 0 2 3 8-17 47.1 2-6 33.3 3-3 100.0 -11.0
Jose Alvarado 9:19 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Jordan Clarkson 20:45 10 3 5 1 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 11.0
Pacôme Dadiet DNP - Coach's Decision
Mohamed Diawara 11:05 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Ariel Hukporti DNP - Inactive
Trey Jemison III DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Jones DNP - Inactive
Tyler Kolek DNP - Coach's Decision
Miles McBride DNP - Inactive
Kevin McCullar Jr. DNP - Inactive
Mitchell Robinson 20:44 11 8 0 1 2 1 2 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 11.0
Landry Shamet DNP - Inactive
Jeremy Sochan DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: NOP @ NYK
Mar 23, 2026 at 08:14 PM
**Prediction:** NOP 107 - NYK 122 (NYK by 15, total 229) **Confidence:** 96% **NOP** 15-40 (#14) | Net: -5.5 | Off: 110.7 | Def: 116.2 | Rest: 2d rest **NYK** 34-19 (#2) | Net: 5.5 | Off: 116.8 | Def: 111.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.3 **Injuries:** NOP: Bryce McGowens (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) NYK: Miles McBride (Out), Kevin McCullar Jr. (Day-To-Day), Landry Shamet (Out) (impact: -3.6 pts) **Key Players:** NOP: Zion Williamson 22.5p/5.3r/2.3a | Saddiq Bey 19.9p/5.2r/3.7a | Dejounte Murray 19.5p/4.6r/6.5a NYK: Jalen Brunson 32.8p/3.2r/9.1a | Karl-Anthony Towns 23.8p/15.1r/3.5a | OG Anunoby 22.4p/6.3r/2.2a **Value Bets:** SPREAD NYK -9.0 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) SPREAD NYK -9.5 (moderate, EV $0.270/dollar) MONEYLINE NYK -340 (strong, EV $0.237/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred