Sacramento Kings 90 @ 134 Charlotte Hornets

March 24, 2026 | Spectrum Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

SAC CHA Total
Predicted 101 119 220
Actual 90 134 224
Diff +11 -15 -4
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Doug McDermott Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 9/1/2
Ryan Kalkbrenner Pred: 8/5/0 | Actual: 6/4/1
Josh Green Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 6/0/1
Tre Mann Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 6/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
DeMar DeRozan Pred: 24pts | Actual: 7pts (off by 17)
Miles Bridges Pred: 22pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 13)
Moussa Diabaté Pred: 6pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 10)

Sacramento Kings

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Carter SG 34:08 18 3 3 1 0 1 1 7-15 46.7 3-5 60.0 1-1 100.0 -36.0
DeMar DeRozan SF 28:47 7 4 5 0 0 2 0 3-10 30.0 0-2 0.0 1-3 33.3 -29.0
Malik Monk PG 29:56 7 3 14 1 0 0 3 3-13 23.1 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 -39.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. PF 27:44 5 4 1 1 1 2 1 2-6 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -28.0
Maxime Raynaud C 29:32 16 7 0 0 0 2 1 6-14 42.9 1-3 33.3 3-4 75.0 -42.0
Precious Achiuwa DNP - Coach's Decision
Dylan Cardwell 23:54 6 11 1 0 1 3 5 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Nique Clifford DNP - Coach's Decision
Drew Eubanks DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott 29:47 9 1 2 0 1 0 1 4-8 50.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Keegan Murray DNP - Inactive
Daeqwon Plowden 36:11 22 2 1 1 0 2 3 9-17 52.9 3-8 37.5 1-1 100.0 -25.0
Domantas Sabonis DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook DNP - Inactive

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 27:11 13 3 6 1 0 2 4 5-15 33.3 3-10 30.0 0-0 0.0 30.0
Kon Knueppel SF 20:37 14 4 3 0 0 1 1 5-12 41.7 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 28.0
LaMelo Ball PG 23:19 20 6 8 2 0 0 2 7-16 43.8 6-13 46.2 0-0 0.0 32.0
Miles Bridges PF 24:02 9 8 4 0 0 2 2 4-8 50.0 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 28.0
Moussa Diabaté C 24:07 17 11 2 1 2 1 0 6-7 85.7 0-0 0.0 5-7 71.4 26.0
Pat Connaughton DNP - Inactive
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 17:01 6 0 1 1 0 1 0 2-4 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 21:05 8 4 1 1 0 1 3 3-7 42.9 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 22:09 6 4 1 0 2 2 2 3-4 75.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 22.0
Tre Mann 7:29 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Liam McNeeley 10:18 7 6 0 0 0 1 0 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Antonio Reeves DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman 7:29 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Coby White 18:25 27 5 1 0 0 0 0 9-12 75.0 6-8 75.0 3-3 100.0 26.0
Grant Williams 16:46 0 3 2 0 1 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: SAC @ CHA
Mar 23, 2026 at 08:14 PM
**Prediction:** SAC 101 - CHA 119 (CHA by 18, total 220) **Confidence:** 96% **SAC** 12-43 (#15) | Net: -9.9 | Off: 108.0 | Def: 117.9 | Rest: 1d rest **CHA** 25-29 (#10) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 113.2 | Def: 111.4 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.7 **Injuries:** SAC: Precious Achiuwa (Day-To-Day), Nique Clifford (Out), Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Daeqwon Plowden (Day-To-Day), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Day-To-Day), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.1 pts) CHA: Kon Knueppel (Day-To-Day), Tidjane Salaün (Out) (impact: -1.4 pts) **Key Players:** SAC: DeMar DeRozan 24.0p/3.0r/6.5a | Maxime Raynaud 15.3p/9.8r/2.0a | Malik Monk 14.5p/1.7r/3.4a CHA: LaMelo Ball 27.7p/5.0r/6.6a | Miles Bridges 22.5p/4.7r/3.4a | Brandon Miller 22.3p/4.4r/4.5a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 228.5 (strong, EV $0.338/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 227.5 (moderate, EV $0.312/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred