Golden State Warriors 137 @ 131 Dallas Mavericks

March 23, 2026 | American Airlines Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

GSW DAL Total
Predicted 112 116 228
Actual 137 131 268
Diff -25 -15 -40
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
LJ Cryer Pred: 11/2/1 | Actual: 9/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
De'Anthony Melton Pred: 18pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 17)
Naji Marshall Pred: 22pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 15)
Gui Santos Pred: 11pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 10)

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
De'Anthony Melton SG 12:45 0 3 2 2 0 5 1 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Moses Moody SF 12:44 9 1 1 0 1 0 3 3-6 50.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 0.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 17:29 10 5 3 1 0 2 1 4-6 66.7 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Draymond Green PF 15:27 8 1 3 1 0 0 1 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Kristaps Porziņģis C 12:37 10 4 3 0 0 1 2 2-6 33.3 2-4 50.0 4-4 100.0 1.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer 8:42 9 0 1 0 0 0 1 3-4 75.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Stephen Curry DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry DNP - Inactive
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons DNP - Coach's Decision
Gary Payton II 8:04 6 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Quinten Post DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Richard 9:13 9 0 1 1 0 0 2 3-4 75.0 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Gui Santos 13:02 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Pat Spencer 7:46 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 15:11 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Cooper Flagg SF 17:09 14 1 4 0 0 0 1 5-8 62.5 0-1 0.0 4-4 100.0 9.0
Naji Marshall PG 13:43 6 4 4 0 0 5 1 2-5 40.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0.0
P.J. Washington PF 13:54 9 2 0 1 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 1-3 33.3 6.0
Daniel Gafford C 15:13 14 5 2 0 0 0 1 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 4-6 66.7 10.0
Marvin Bagley III 8:21 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Khris Middleton 7:18 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Ryan Nembhard 8:44 2 1 4 2 0 1 1 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Dwight Powell DNP - Coach's Decision
Klay Thompson 8:25 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Brandon Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: GSW @ DAL
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** GSW 110 - DAL 114 (DAL by 4, total 224) **Confidence:** 81% **GSW** 29-25 (#8) | Net: 2.0 | Off: 112.2 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest **DAL** 19-33 (#12) | Net: -2.9 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 111.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.5 **Injuries:** GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Seth Curry (Day-To-Day), Al Horford (Out), De'Anthony Melton (Day-To-Day), Moses Moody (Out), Kristaps Porziņģis (Day-To-Day), Quinten Post (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) DAL: Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out), Brandon Williams (Out) (impact: -3.4 pts) **Key Players:** GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 18.6p/5.4r/2.2a | De'Anthony Melton 18.1p/2.9r/2.8a | Brandin Podziemski 16.3p/5.9r/4.8a DAL: Cooper Flagg 23.8p/8.2r/5.5a | Naji Marshall 21.7p/5.8r/4.7a | P.J. Washington 16.7p/9.0r/1.8a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DAL 114 (strong, EV $0.742/dollar) MONEYLINE DAL 108 (strong, EV $0.693/dollar) SPREAD DAL 2.5 (moderate, EV $0.357/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred