Toronto Raptors 143 @ 127 Utah Jazz

March 23, 2026 | Delta Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

TOR UTA Total
Predicted 121 106 227
Actual 143 127 270
Diff -22 -21 -43
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jamison Battle Pred: 4/2/0 | Actual: 3/2/1
Gradey Dick Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 6/2/1

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 20:39 17 3 4 0 0 0 1 7-11 63.6 2-3 66.7 1-5 20.0 11.0
Ja'Kobe Walter SF 20:54 16 4 1 1 1 0 2 5-7 71.4 5-7 71.4 1-1 100.0 27.0
Jamal Shead PG 20:27 4 0 9 0 0 2 2 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 19.0
Scottie Barnes PF 22:17 18 5 9 1 1 3 3 7-8 87.5 1-2 50.0 3-3 100.0 17.0
Sandro Mamukelashvili C 22:57 17 3 1 4 1 0 1 7-11 63.6 3-6 50.0 0-2 0.0 16.0
Jamison Battle 10:02 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Gradey Dick 11:48 6 2 1 0 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Brandon Ingram DNP - Coach's Decision
Trayce Jackson-Davis DNP - Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson DNP - Inactive
Alijah Martin DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Mogbo DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Murray-Boyles 7:27 5 1 0 0 2 1 3 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 3-3 100.0 10.0
Jakob Poeltl DNP - Inactive
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Garrett Temple DNP - Coach's Decision

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Elijah Harkless SG 20:37 4 1 1 1 0 1 1 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 4-6 66.7 -8.0
John Konchar SF 19:04 12 2 0 0 0 1 1 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 4-4 100.0 -22.0
Ace Bailey PF 20:34 23 3 3 0 1 0 2 6-10 60.0 3-4 75.0 8-8 100.0 -18.0
Kyle Filipowski C 14:25 1 4 2 0 1 3 2 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -10.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Brice Sensabaugh 13:21 10 2 0 0 0 3 2 5-12 41.7 0-6 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Oscar Tshiebwe 8:32 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 -12.0
Cody Williams DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ UTA
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** TOR 118 - UTA 105 (TOR by 13, total 223) **Confidence:** 95% **TOR** 32-22 (#5) | Net: 1.8 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.9 | Rest: B2B **UTA** 17-37 (#13) | Net: -7.7 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 119.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Day-To-Day), Collin Murray-Boyles (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts) UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: Brandon Ingram 22.6p/4.9r/2.7a | RJ Barrett 21.9p/4.7r/3.5a | Scottie Barnes 17.4p/6.9r/5.4a UTA: Brice Sensabaugh 17.5p/3.5r/1.7a | Cody Williams 14.9p/4.0r/2.3a | Ace Bailey 14.2p/5.6r/2.5a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (moderate, EV $0.324/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (moderate, EV $0.312/dollar) MONEYLINE TOR -770 (slight, EV $0.077/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred