Houston Rockets 124 @ 132 Chicago Bulls

March 23, 2026 | United Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

HOU CHI Total
Predicted 120 112 232
Actual 124 132 256
Diff -4 -20 -24
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Rob Dillingham Pred: 7/2/3 | Actual: 9/1/3
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Aaron Holiday Pred: 5/1/1 | Actual: 3/1/3
Josh Giddey Pred: 18/8/11 | Actual: 15/7/13
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jabari Smith Jr. Pred: 22pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 15)

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 39:20 23 3 1 2 2 2 5 8-12 66.7 0-1 0.0 7-9 77.8 -12.0
Jabari Smith Jr. SF 34:11 6 5 1 0 0 2 3 2-10 20.0 1-7 14.3 1-1 100.0 0.0
Reed Sheppard PG 36:16 13 5 6 2 2 4 3 5-17 29.4 3-14 21.4 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Kevin Durant PF 39:40 40 7 5 0 0 4 1 15-23 65.2 5-10 50.0 5-8 62.5 -18.0
Alperen Sengun C 37:26 33 13 10 2 2 2 4 16-19 84.2 1-2 50.0 0-3 0.0 -6.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 4:18 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Coach's Decision
JD Davison DNP - Inactive
Tari Eason 14:18 4 3 1 0 1 0 1 1-5 20.0 0-2 0.0 2-3 66.7 1.0
Dorian Finney-Smith 7:37 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 21:04 3 1 3 2 0 2 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 22.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 2:30 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jae'Sean Tate 3:18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive

Chicago Bulls

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Jones SG 28:03 15 5 6 2 0 1 2 6-11 54.5 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 13.0
Matas Buzelis SF 34:47 23 4 1 0 0 3 4 8-16 50.0 5-9 55.6 2-2 100.0 7.0
Josh Giddey PG 38:43 15 7 13 2 1 2 2 4-14 28.6 3-8 37.5 4-4 100.0 7.0
Jalen Smith PF 25:47 15 6 2 0 2 3 4 6-8 75.0 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 17.0
Nick Richards C 26:23 11 8 0 0 1 0 4 3-7 42.9 1-2 50.0 4-6 66.7 2.0
Zach Collins DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham 18:18 9 1 3 1 0 1 1 4-7 57.1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Noa Essengue DNP - Inactive
Jaden Ivey DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura DNP - Inactive
Mac McClung DNP - Inactive
Leonard Miller 23:19 17 9 3 0 0 1 1 7-11 63.6 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 4.0
Isaac Okoro DNP - Coach's Decision
Lachlan Olbrich DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Sexton 25:53 25 4 2 3 0 2 1 6-14 42.9 4-7 57.1 9-10 90.0 2.0
Anfernee Simons DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams 18:46 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Guerschon Yabusele DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: HOU @ CHI
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** HOU 121 - CHI 114 (HOU by 7, total 235) **Confidence:** 92% **HOU** 32-19 (#4) | Net: 5.1 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.3 | Rest: 1d rest **CHI** 24-30 (#11) | Net: -3.4 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 115.7 | Rest: 3d rest Projected pace: 101.5 **Injuries:** HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Out), Anfernee Simons (Out), Jalen Smith (Day-To-Day), Guerschon Yabusele (Day-To-Day) (impact: -4.3 pts) **Key Players:** HOU: Kevin Durant 32.2p/6.6r/4.7a | Alperen Sengun 24.3p/9.6r/7.5a | Amen Thompson 23.2p/8.3r/4.7a CHI: Matas Buzelis 20.4p/7.4r/1.7a | Tre Jones 17.3p/2.8r/5.9a | Josh Giddey 17.2p/8.2r/11.2a **Value Bets:** TOTAL OVER 228.5 (moderate, EV $0.244/dollar) TOTAL OVER 229.5 (moderate, EV $0.228/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -330 (strong, EV $0.201/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred