Oklahoma City Thunder 123 @ 103 Philadelphia 76ers

March 23, 2026 | Xfinity Mobile Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

OKC PHI Total
Predicted 121 103 223
Actual 123 103 226
Diff -2 0 -3
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Isaiah Joe Pred: 9/2/1 | Actual: 9/2/1
Jabari Walker Pred: 5/3/1 | Actual: 4/4/1
Jalen Williams Pred: 17/4/6 | Actual: 18/4/6
Alex Caruso Pred: 7/2/2 | Actual: 4/2/2
Brooks Barnhizer Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
VJ Edgecombe Pred: 18pts | Actual: 35pts (off by 17)
Jaylin Williams Pred: 6pts | Actual: 18pts (off by 11)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Luguentz Dort SG 22:03 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1-5 20.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Jalen Williams SF 20:23 18 4 6 0 0 3 3 8-14 57.1 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 9.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 29:03 22 5 5 1 2 5 2 9-13 69.2 1-4 25.0 3-3 100.0 13.0
Chet Holmgren PF 29:51 17 9 4 0 5 1 0 6-11 54.5 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 21:48 10 12 5 1 1 3 1 5-7 71.4 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Brooks Barnhizer 1:50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Branden Carlson 1:50 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Alex Caruso 15:37 4 2 2 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 12.0
Isaiah Joe 18:36 9 2 1 2 0 0 2 3-7 42.9 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Jared McCain 25:24 13 1 2 0 0 0 1 5-11 45.5 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 19.0
Ajay Mitchell DNP - Coach's Decision
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić DNP - Inactive
Cason Wallace 22:15 5 1 3 1 1 1 1 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Aaron Wiggins 10:44 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Jaylin Williams 18:46 18 8 4 0 1 1 2 6-8 75.0 5-7 71.4 1-1 100.0 15.0
Kenrich Williams 1:50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
MarJon Beauchamp SG 31:45 13 6 2 2 0 5 0 5-18 27.8 3-11 27.3 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Justin Edwards SF 24:49 8 1 2 1 0 3 1 3-7 42.9 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -18.0
VJ Edgecombe PG 39:29 35 6 4 1 0 1 2 14-28 50.0 7-15 46.7 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Dominick Barlow PF 19:24 0 7 4 1 1 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Adem Bona C 25:43 3 5 3 1 2 1 1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-4 25.0 -12.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond 18:30 6 4 2 0 0 1 0 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Joel Embiid DNP - Inactive
Paul George DNP - Inactive
Quentin Grimes DNP - Inactive
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyrese Maxey DNP - Inactive
Kelly Oubre Jr. DNP - Inactive
Jabari Walker 10:15 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 2-5 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 1.0
Trendon Watford 22:08 15 6 4 0 0 3 1 6-10 60.0 0-2 0.0 3-4 75.0 -8.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: OKC @ PHI
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** OKC 123 - PHI 102 (OKC by 21, total 226) **Confidence:** 97% **OKC** 41-13 (#1) | Net: 11.6 | Off: 116.6 | Def: 105.1 | Rest: 1d rest **PHI** 30-23 (#6) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 112.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.5 **Injuries:** OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) PHI: Dominick Barlow (Day-To-Day), Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Out), Paul George (Out), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 31.4p/3.3r/6.6a | Chet Holmgren 20.9p/9.8r/1.1a | Jalen Williams 17.0p/3.6r/5.6a PHI: Quentin Grimes 20.4p/4.0r/4.2a | VJ Edgecombe 18.1p/6.1r/6.1a | Justin Edwards 14.3p/2.4r/1.8a **Value Bets:** SPREAD OKC -15.5 (moderate, EV $0.270/dollar) SPREAD OKC -15.5 (moderate, EV $0.270/dollar) TOTAL OVER 220.5 (moderate, EV $0.207/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 β€” off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred