**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** LAL 35 - DET 35 (Winner: DET ✓) **Prediction:** LAL 108 - DET 114 Score error: 73/79 | Total: pred 222, actual 70 (-152) **Standout Players:** LeBron James (LAL): 0p actual vs 19.3p pred (+19.3) Luka Dončić (LAL): 17p actual vs 35.9p pred (+18.9) Austin Reaves (LAL): 8p actual vs 23.8p pred (+15.8) Jalen Duren (DET): 10p actual vs 22.0p pred (+12.0) Ronald Holland II (DET): 0p actual vs 10.5p pred (+10.5) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE DET 110 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE DET 110 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET 2.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DET 2.0 — WON

**Prediction:** LAL 112 - DET 116 (DET by 4, total 228) **Confidence:** 84% **LAL** 32-20 (#5) | Net: 0.1 | Off: 115.1 | Def: 114.9 | Rest: 1d rest **DET** 39-13 (#1) | Net: 7.5 | Off: 113.3 | Def: 105.8 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** LAL: Rui Hachimura (Day-To-Day), Maxi Kleber (Out), Marcus Smart (Day-To-Day), Nick Smith Jr. (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.1 pts) DET: Cade Cunningham (Out), Marcus Sasser (Out), Isaiah Stewart (Out) (impact: -8.2 pts) **Key Players:** LAL: Luka Dončić 34.6p/6.6r/9.3a | Austin Reaves 22.8p/4.7r/6.0a | LeBron James 18.6p/6.3r/5.2a DET: Jalen Duren 21.3p/12.2r/1.4a | Tobias Harris 14.3p/5.3r/2.8a | Duncan Robinson 11.7p/3.5r/3.0a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DET 110 (strong, EV $0.766/dollar) MONEYLINE DET 110 (strong, EV $0.766/dollar) SPREAD DET 2.5 (moderate, EV $0.299/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred