Memphis Grizzlies 107 @ 146 Atlanta Hawks

March 23, 2026 | State Farm Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

MEM ATL Total
Predicted 114 122 235
Actual 107 146 253
Diff +7 -24 -18
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Gabe Vincent Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 2/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Ty Jerome Pred: 26pts | Actual: 3pts (off by 23)
CJ McCollum Pred: 23pts | Actual: 3pts (off by 20)
Jaylen Wells Pred: 17pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 16)

Memphis Grizzlies

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jaylen Wells SG 6:36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Rayan Rupert SF 7:30 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Ty Jerome PG 6:36 3 0 0 1 0 1 2 1-5 20.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -15.0
GG Jackson PF 5:38 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper C 8:32 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Santi Aldama DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke DNP - Coach's Decision
Walter Clayton Jr. 7:07 3 0 1 0 1 2 1 1-5 20.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Cedric Coward DNP - Inactive
Zach Edey DNP - Inactive
Taylor Hendricks 6:38 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Jahmai Mashack DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr. DNP - Inactive
Javon Small DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer DNP - Coach's Decision

Atlanta Hawks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG 10:01 13 2 1 0 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 1-3 33.3 4-4 100.0 11.0
Dyson Daniels SF 7:50 5 3 0 1 0 1 0 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
CJ McCollum PG 8:14 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Mouhamed Gueye PF 8:10 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Onyeka Okongwu C 5:51 1 3 1 1 0 1 2 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 10.0
RayJ Dennis DNP - Inactive
Keshon Gilbert DNP - Inactive
Buddy Hield DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Johnson DNP - Inactive
Corey Kispert 0:45 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Christian Koloko DNP - Coach's Decision
Jonathan Kuminga 5:15 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Jock Landale 6:13 2 1 3 0 1 2 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Asa Newell DNP - Inactive
Zaccharie Risacher 6:54 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Gabe Vincent 4:31 2 1 0 1 0 3 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Keaton Wallace DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MEM @ ATL
Mar 23, 2026 at 08:38 PM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** MEM 8 - ATL 18 (Winner: ATL ✓) **Prediction:** MEM 114 - ATL 122 Score error: 106/104 | Total: pred 235, actual 26 (-209) **Standout Players:** CJ McCollum (ATL): 3p actual vs 23.1p pred (+20.1) Ty Jerome (MEM): 3p actual vs 26.3p pred (+23.3) Onyeka Okongwu (ATL): 1p actual vs 16.2p pred (+15.2) GG Jackson (MEM): 4p actual vs 16.3p pred (+12.3) Olivier-Maxence Prosper (MEM): 1p actual vs 13.9p pred (+12.9) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ SPREAD MEM 14.0 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE ATL -850 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE ATL -850 — WON
General Slate Analysis: MEM @ ATL
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** MEM 112 - ATL 124 (ATL by 12, total 237) **Confidence:** 95% **MEM** 20-32 (#11) | Net: -2.0 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 112.2 | Rest: 1d rest **ATL** 26-29 (#9) | Net: -1.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 112.9 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 104.5 **Injuries:** MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Cedric Coward (Out), Zach Edey (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Cam Spencer (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts) ATL: Jalen Johnson (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.5 pts) **Key Players:** MEM: Ty Jerome 26.6p/3.4r/8.0a | Jaylen Wells 16.6p/3.5r/1.3a | GG Jackson 16.4p/4.6r/1.8a ATL: Jalen Johnson 22.5p/10.6r/7.4a | CJ McCollum 20.8p/2.6r/4.6a | Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19.8p/2.8r/3.6a **Value Bets:** SPREAD MEM 14.0 (slight, EV $0.069/dollar) MONEYLINE ATL -850 (slight, EV $0.059/dollar) MONEYLINE ATL -850 (slight, EV $0.059/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred